What to Look for As the Election Returns Come In

CLAY: Many of us, I imagine, who listen to this show — certainly Buck and I — will be kicking back tonight, put our feet up, watch the results come in. Buck, how do you watch the results come in on election night? What’s your preferred…? I know this is not the midterms; it’s not the presidential election. It’s a little bit different. But what’s your preferred way to watch election results come in? Do you look at the phone? Do you have a particular website that you refresh? What’s your play?

BUCK: I generally kick back in my Tommy John loungewear while finishing the paperwork on my American Financing mortgage and then I take a moment to pull the weighted blanket from MyPillow.

CLAY: (laughing)

BUCK: No, I’ll have Fox News on, although I will say on election night — and this is a pro tip for everybody — it’s a fun thing to do for those of you out there, if you can have a sense of humor about it. If it’s gonna make you fly into a rage, obviously don’t do it. But as the results come in, especially, let’s say, if Youngkin is doing really well, flip to CNN and MSNBC just to see the blood drain from their faces as they face the prospect of a sad night.

And then watch the hysterical political analysis. If Youngkin wins… This one I can’t guarantee the same way I could the last prediction about how they’ll say challenging elections is patriotic if they challenge the election, that’s for sure. But if Youngkin does end up winning, Clay, they’re gonna say that this was somehow a win for the insurrection and white nationalists. There will be people on major news networks saying that, like lunatics.

CLAY: Yes. And they will say, “Well, this further solidifies Donald Trump’s stronghold of the Republican Party.” That will be an argument, ’cause they will immediately try to Trumpify whatever election results come out in 2023. And honestly, to me what is fascinating about the Youngkin campaign — and you tell me if you agree with this analysis — is Youngkin has managed to both simultaneously get the Trump voters motivated to come out and support him without having to pledge undying loyalty to Donald Trump.

So what I mean by that is, people want to know that you’re in the Trump camp, but they also want you to be independent in some way. Does that make sense? Because when it’s statewide election, the governor is ultimately the chief executive of the state understanding, “Hey, I’m a Trump supporter.

“I think Trump should have won in 2020.” That’s where both of us are, but then Glenn Youngkin as the governor has been able to take the next step, which is, “I support Trump, but I’m going to be the governor of Virginia,” and that’s different than being a representative or a senator where you’re theoretically trying to execute the Trump agenda, as it were.

BUCK: Going back to political basics, what do people care about who will be your constituents? What are the challenges they face? Why are they upset about schools? What do they think about where the economy is going? What do they think about the issues that actually are mobilizing people in Virginia right now on Youngkin’s behalf, the reason he’s doing so much better than people thought?

If you look at the polls, it’s just been… You know, the delta he’s hit is in just the last few weeks. Before that, in the beginning, as he said, he had like a 3% name recognition which is basically a 0% name recognition in the state of Virginia. The guy’s a total unknown politically. I mean, he was a CEO of the Carlyle Group which is no small thing. I’ll point that out. And he’s apparently six foot seven, by the way.

CLAY: He played baseball at Rice is my understanding.

BUCK: Yeah. He’s a guy who could probably dunk. I’m just gonna say it. I don’t know if he still can, but we could ask him. And, Clay, here he is pointing out, for example, that this race is a rallying cry for the GOP.

YOUNGKIN: Last night we had a rally in Loudoun County. I think all of Loudoun County was there last night, because this is where the real issues around education and parents’ rights to be engaged in their kids’ lives have become the real rallying cry across Virginia. And it’s no longer Republicans against Democrats.

It’s parents from all political perspectives, from all walks of life coming together and standing up for their children and that’s why I expect us to do well in Northern Virginia, I expect us to be well in southwesten Virginia, well in Richmond and well in Hampton Roads and I think we’re gonna see a big day.

BUCK: Clay, that’s real issues, the secret sauce. That’s what we’re seeing here.

CLAY: Yeah, I don’t think there’s any doubt. And ultimately what this is about, I believe that 2020 was a mirage. And let me explain by the thesis “2020 was a mirage.” Democrats dragged Joe Biden and Kamala Harris across the finish line thanks to overwhelming changes in voting laws and the fact that covid was going on. But for covid, Donald Trump destroys Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

So they used covid — what I call “fear porn” — to motivate their base, to terrify suburban people. And I think what has happened is a lot of those people bought into the idea that Joe Biden was gonna heal the rifts that exist in America. I really do. I think a lot of suburban women in particular bought into the idea, suburban, educated white voters, by and large, ’cause that’s where Trump lost support.

They bought into the idea, “Hey, Joe Biden’s gonna bring America back to normalcy.” The problem is in less than a year Joe Biden has been infinitely worse than Donald Trump ever could have been, and what is happening right now is there is a great deal of buyer’s remorse. I believe many people out there are going to go back and look at the actual issues — and, Buck, I pulled this because this was The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll.

We talked about how underwater Biden is on a lot of different issues out there. Which party do you think will do a better job on border security? Republicans plus 27, Buck. Which party would do a better job on inflation? Republicans plus 24. Which party would do a better job on crime? Republicans plus 22.

On national security, Republicans plus 21. On the economy, plus 18. And on the very broad category of just getting things done? Republicans plus 13. That’s not even getting into critical race theory or all the culture wars. These are bread-and-butter issues at the wheelhouse of the Republican Party.

BUCK: This is playing out in Virginia and nationally: The narrative versus the reality. What you were talking about, the Biden promise of unity and healing the rifts and all that, that was narrative. That was promise. That was just words and the propaganda machinery of the Democrat Party putting it out there in a way that when people are scared and it’s covid and all that nice happy talk and good old Grandpa Joe, right? People, enough of them — and, by the way, didn’t have to be a lot.

CLAY: Not by a lot, yes, yes.

BUCK: Right, didn’t have to be a lot. Enough of them bought that, that now you have president, “Where’s my pants? Get me a blanket.” This is the guy who’s running the country because of that narrative. But even in Virginia you got Terry McAuliffe, and you can tell this guy, it’s just the old talking points, the old Democrat talking points, oh, there’s all this racism in Republicans. He’s putting Randi Weingarten, who has been worse for children and schools than anyone else —

CLAY: Basically than any official of all time.

BUCK: — the single most ruthless, selfish-for-adults-at-the-expense-of-children bureaucrat in living memory. I mean, I can’t think of anybody else. He puts does her forward at the very closing moment of her campaign because he’s relying on Democrat Party apparatus and the narrative that it brings. Glenn Youngkin is saying, “What can we do to make things better?” He was talking last night Clay at his rally about making the DMV a better experience, which I know might sound to people like, “Oh, how does that poll or test?” That’s the kind of stuff —

CLAY: Well. Anybody who’s ever stood in line at the DMV, it polls well.

BUCK: Right. But that’s not the kind of sexy the sound bite stuff you’re gonna see clipped all over cable news. But this is actually why we elect people to make things that they have to run, they should do less than they do a lot of time. But the aspects of government they have to run to do it well and if they are going to tackle a problem, to fix it.

What problems has Terry McAuliffe tackled? And more to the point, what problems has the Biden administration tackled when in reality we already see — again, narrative versus reality — they have made everything worse. Everything’s actually gotten worse.

CLAY: And this has to do with the toxicity, I would say, of the Democratic brand overall which effectively boils down to “everything is racist.” Because the Democrat Party is so desperate to get black turnout that the only thing they go to is everything is racist. Terry McAuliffe closing argument is everything Republicans are trying to do is racist. And this is significant because, one, the country is becoming more diverse.

So just going after black voters doesn’t work, and I think this is why we saw Hispanic and Asian voters break for Trump in ’20 and also black voters. But I think you’re starting to see a recognition, a dawning of an anti-woke culture among black, Hispanic, and Asian people for a variety of different reasons where that “the Republican Party is racist” accusation doesn’t motivate voters like it used to, and Terry McAuliffe is still trying to play the same old hits that have worked historically, and they just don’t motivate the same way.