Will Joe Biden Run for Reelection?

CLAY: You asked me yesterday a question, Buck, that I don’t think I answered. You said, if Joe Biden was gonna step down, when would he do it? Something along those lines. People can go check the transcripts to know for sure. But we talked about it, kind of hinted at it, and then we didn’t dive into the answer. And my answer is, I think Joe Biden will, come February of next year — so not very long from now.

I think Joe Biden will announce that he is not running for reelection in 2024. And there are a bunch of different reasons why I believe that will occur, but I saw this — in the Washington Post. It’s an opinion piece, but the fact that the Washington Post even published it is indicative of the direction we are going. And the headline is: “Quit, Joe, Quit! Biden Could Save the Midterms with a One-Term Pledge.”

This is a guy named Steven Isenberg wrote this, and here’s his opening paragraph, Buck. “President Biden should announce now that he will not run for reelection in 2024. He should not ask the Democratic Party, or the nation, to assume the risk of a second four-year term that would begin after he reached the age of 82,” and he says this would then make the midterm elections about something other than Joe Biden being an awful president — and I’m paraphrasing the “awful president” part.

I think this is significant ’cause, to my mind — you may have seen one; I haven’t seen the Democrat apparatus of CNN, the Washington Post, the New York Times, or MSNBC actually feature an article like this yet. And so the fact that that was in the Washington Post and received some substantial publicity to me is an indication that the apparatus continues to move against Joe Biden. You find it significant that…? To me, this is the first time we’ve seen one of those places publish an argument like this.

BUCK: So, my belief — and I don’t pretend to have it set in stone here what’s gonna happen. I don’t think anybody knows. I don’t even think Joe Biden knows what’s gonna happen. My belief in all this is they really want to see who the Republican is looking to be, as in, does Trump announce, when does he announce, and then Democrats want to — ’cause they’ll be able, I think, to get a sense of what the reaction to that is right away.

And they’re start looking at polls and how does Biden match up against Trump. I do believe that if Trump announces and they start seeing some change in sentiment, you know, the Democrats, the DNC believes that that is, even with the economy where it is and everything else, in any way a favorable matchup for Joe Biden or could book one ’cause we’re getting to the nowhere to go but up part of the Biden presidency in a lot of people’s minds, I think, at least economically speaking.

I believe the Democrats think that Joe Biden is their best matchup against Trump. I don’t think they believe that Joe Biden is their best matchup against another GOP contender — and there are a handful, obviously Ron DeSantis top of the list, but there are a handful of non-Trump possibilities. So, that’s why I think you can’t really know until Trump announces and they want to see that reaction. So, let’s say Biden was gonna announce in February. They’re gonna just be looking and polling and, you know, are people exhausted with all the January 6th stuff and everything else, or not? Maybe Trump’s ahead by four or five points, in which case Biden’s gonna step down.

CLAY: I think that’s what’s gonna happen. I think Trump, by February… So, here’s why I think Biden announces he’s not gonna run in February. And I’ve got a poll here from New Hampshire that is pretty interesting associated with this, too, Buck. But if we get what we expect, which is a Red Wave of sorts in November, then it goes into Thanksgiving, then it goes into Christmas, holiday season, everybody kind of pauses.

And I think that’s when Biden effectively gets forced out. And then he tries to argue that he could still run again in January. By February he recognizes that that’s not going to happen, announces that he’s going to step down. And then you have a full 2023 run-up where Democrats can decide who their nominee is. Reason why I bring this up, I was looking — this poll came out from New Hampshire — and I know we’re a long way from 2024 primaries.

Although, by the time we get to January, we’re only gonna be like a year out from when the New Hampshire primary will be taking place. Mayor Pete right now is the top choice in New Hampshire among Democrat primary voters. Joe Biden is second. I think a lot of people out there will find this intriguing. Then Elizabeth Warren. She’s basically next door in Massachusetts. Gavin Newsom, kind of come out of nowhere. He’s the fourth choice right now at 10%.

Amy Klobuchar. She’s at 9%, already ran before. I find it almost impossible to believe she would be the nominee. Bernie Sanders at 8%. Kamala Harris is all the way down in — what is this? Three, four, five, six — 7th place at 6% of the vote in New Hampshire. Now, if you remember, Joe Biden got wrecked in New Hampshire and then James Clyburn just came out in South Carolina and said Biden is the guy and Biden basically was the nominee after that; so, maybe that’s what happens again, James Clyburn decides who’s gonna run and who’s gonna be the nominee. But I thought that was intriguing that the VP is in seventh place right now in New Hampshire.

BUCK: I would want to see, to your point about South Carolina, that, to me, would be a better indicator of who is likely to be the — who is the heir apparent, essentially, to the Democrat throne such as it is at this point. I think that Biden is… I think he wants a way out. I don’t believe he thinks this is gonna get any better for him. And so, if there is a pathway, he’ll take it, meaning if there’s a way that he gets to hand the baton off and look like the elder statesman, that he would do it. But I think that there is still a belief in Democrat circles that Joe Biden is a strong matchup for Donald Trump.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: I think they really believe that. And so, until that plays out, there’s multiple pathways here that have to be determined before we know what the real matchup will end up being. And look, it also is gonna make a big difference whether Republicans, even if they have a 51-vote majority in the Senate. If you’re Joe Biden, what do you want to stick around for at that point, right? Go another four years of this?

CLAY: He’s a lame duck. And the hit, the political hit, if you really want to pay attention to whether or not the political hit’s coming down, if Hunter Biden gets charged with crimes, that’s effectively the Democrats saying, Joe Biden, we are done with you. And I think, Buck — think that might happen in the next month. I think —

BUCK: Look at you with the big sweeping declarations.

CLAY: Well, I just — they’re going to try to avoid charges in October for sure. They could charge him after the midterms, which is a possibility. But if they’re going to do it, I feel like it needs to come out sometime in August, ’cause you still have a couple of months before the midterms after that. That’s my theory, anyway.

BUCK: I don’t know. I don’t know if they really care all that much about it. I think at some level, the people that are making that decision realize, there’s no good time to charge the president’s son with possible felonies. And again, if we think it’s gonna be misdemeanors and he pays fines, which is what I think at worst will be the reality of it, then Joe Biden will actually hold this up as, “See? I didn’t step in and try to mess with the wheels of justice. I’m not like that evil Trump guy with January 6th and all of his, you know, slimy pardons at the end of his presidency. I let the wheels of justice go.” And that’s why Hunter gets off with a slap-on-the-wrist. The slap-on-the-wrist situation is actually a benefit, because then it puts this all to bed, right?

CLAY: Cleans the deck.

BUCK: Then it cleans the deck, and then Joe Biden gets to say, “See? Even when my own son’s in jeopardy, I don’t step in.”

CLAY: Well, and that would be a sign that he’s gonna run again in 2024. I think they’re gonna throw Hunter to the wolves, and that allows them to go after Trump even more aggressively.