Clay Theory: How Dems Make Midterms a Referendum on Abortion

CLAY: I told you I had my grand theory here. Buck, tell me what you think about this. You haven’t heard it. I teased it. Right now, the filibuster is not gonna get changed. It doesn’t feel like Build Back Better is going to have any strong measure of success. How are the Democrats gonna spend 2022 as they get ready for the midterms? Here’s my theory, Buck.

I think that Stephen Breyer steps down in June right after the final Supreme Court decisions are released for that term, which will include the abortion case out of Mississippi and out of Texas, potentially — certainly will also include the covid vaccine case, all of those things. That then gives the Democrats a small window as they head for the midterms where they’re likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate to end up putting someone on the Supreme Court.

That turns the summer into the fall, which would actually put this person forward in September and October. The entire midterms, they’re going to try to make a referendum on abortion — and we already know, Joe Biden has already pledged it that it’s going to be a black woman who he nominates for the Supreme Court. Maybe it’s Kamala Harris — who, regardless of who he picks, that is their plan:

To terrify suburban women with abortion tied up with a Supreme Court justice being approved, ’cause you got 50 votes, and we know Democrats would all stand behind that. But they want to create that as the primary story to try to detract from whatever might be going on with covid, the border, murders — and certainly hopefully inflation is better by then, but who knows. What do you think about that idea, looking forward as the overriding focus of the Democratic Party in the fall of ’22?

BUCK: Well, it’s a prediction, right, that’s entirely contingent on what that Supreme Court decision is, because if that Supreme Court decision, let’s say, does not overturn in part or in whole aspects of Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey —

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: So, yeah, assuming that happens, it will certainly be a factor. I still think that their belief is that they can run on covid fear, the insurrection narrative and voting rights racism allegations.

CLAY: I think that’s a disaster.

BUCK: Look, I think it’s a disaster too. I think that whatever their strategy is, unless something crazy happens, it’s gonna be entirely insufficient. People forget this. Republicans in a pandemic year actually did pretty well with the exception of the Trump v. Biden and then the duo Senate seats in Georgia.

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: But in a lot of places, a lot of congressional seats, Republicans actually — for what the expectations would be when the party in power is in the midst of a once-in-a-century pandemic, they held their ground pretty well. I am upset seeing how Republicans have no spine in state after state on the redistricting issue. Democrats are ruthless. They are Attila the Hun of redistricting and then Republicans, “Oh, but I want people at CNN to like me!” They just can’t get it together. But I think, Clay, it will be a part of it. I still think that the insurrection and the covid narrative are gonna be the primary pushes.

CLAY: I was just gonna say, it’s also contingent on Stephen Breyer agreeing to step down, which he may not be willing to do.

BUCK: Yeah, you get some of these Democrats who never want to release their grip on power or fame, like Fauci.