Dem Win in NY Swing District Is a Warning for GOP on Abortion

BUCK: There was some good news — we didn’t talk about it early this week, but in the Florida races, Clay, there was some DeSantis-backed school board members who did very well, which was interesting. I think we need to start thinking about how to get back to what caused that moment of panic for Democrats in the off-year election that occurred where Glenn Youngkin became the governor of Virginia, where they almost lost the governor’s mansion in New Jersey. People forget this. Democrats came shockingly close to losing to a Republican in the state of New Jersey.

Schools and who’s in charge of educating your children, what they’re doing to your kids, not just with covid, but with the indoctrination and the trans agenda, that was all so important. I think there’s been a little bit of a… People have lost this focus a little bit, we’re trying to make the message stick right now. Yeah, inflation, okay, but the problem with inflation, Clay, is I think that people start to get… “They almost price it into their thinking, you know, when it starts ramping up, everyone goes, “Oh, my gosh.”

But then their motivation from inflation to vote out the party that caused it might not be quite as high. And it’s all about timing. Van Jones, who as I’ve said before here, is an astute Democrat. He understands where the Democrat Party is. He’s starting to sound like he thinks things are looking really good for Team Democrat. I want to address this with you, Clay.

BUCK: So, he’s right about they’re not, based on the polls right now.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: But of course, all that matters is Election Day and the actual scoreboard when we see this go down. I do think that Republicans need to go on offense more and also speak more about what the agenda is, and that brings me to schools, it brings me to the economy. There are a number of areas where it’s not just enough to say Biden is a senile buffoon because, yes, we know. But obviously that’s not pushing the numbers enough right now in the right direction. There’s gotta be a redoubling of the effort.

CLAY: Yeah. And look. So, this is gonna be controversial to some people. But I think that Dobbs is having an impact for Democrats. And there’s a good editorial in the Wall Street Journal talking about this. There’s a Republicans are like the dog that caught the car. For so long the talking point was “We’ve gotta overturn Roe v. Wade, we’ve gotta overturn Roe v. Wade,” and I think a lot of people don’t understand now what has happened now that Roe v. Wade’s been overturned.

And I want to play this audio ’cause it ties in with something that happened in New York, Buck, where basically we had a congressional election, and it was almost entirely decided, in New York, where nothing is changing, right? If anything, abortions are even more available going forward in New York. But Pat Ryan won New York 19, which was a Biden plus one and a half district that Republicans felt really good about flipping by entirely arguing about abortion.

That was basically his entire campaign. And he won 51 to 49, basically. Listen to cut 20. I want you all out there… A lot of people who work in politics listen to this show. I think this is going to become the primary talking point — I really do — of Democrats to try to distract from inflation, the border, the murder rate, all the disasters. Listen to cut 20, Buck, that was effective in a toss-up district in New York.

RYAN: We won because this is a referendum on freedom. You know, the abortion issue and the attack on women’s reproductive rights is representative of this broader, multifront thrust by increasingly extreme Republican Party to rip away fundamental rights and freedoms. And when that happens in our country, Americans of all parties stand up like we saw in Kansas and we saw last night here in New York. And I think that momentum is certainly gonna be build and carry forward.

BUCK: Well, I gotta say, the outcome here in New York is not what you’re going to see. I don’t think it’s gonna be the primary issue the same way, even assuming his analysis here is correct, Clay. Georgia Senate race is not gonna be concerned based upon abortion. The Pennsylvania Senate race is not gonna be determined based on abortion. It’s also fascinating to hear somebody in New York where, as you pointed out, there’s really no change in the status, talk about an assault on freedom. This is a Supreme Court decision.

The Republican Party didn’t just pass a law. The Supreme Court said, “Your make-believe constitutional right goes away.” Now, at the state level, you get to determine what it is that abortion actually means as a legal matter, where it will be legal, what stages it will be legal. I think Democrats very much want to believe this. I think the Democrat base wants to believe this. As we get closer to the election… So they will come out, for sure. So —

CLAY: That’s the argument they’re gonna make.

BUCK: There’s going to be Democrat base turnout boost from this. But I don’t think that if you look at the polling for independents and persuadables in the key states that are up right now, I don’t think it’s gonna be the deciding factor or even close to the deciding factor.

CLAY: I hope that’s right ’cause I’ve seen always felt, like, the single-issue vote on abortion, to me, has never been something where I think you should make every decision based on that, right? My personal opinion. This year should be a referendum on covid. It should be a referendum on Biden’s incompetence basically everywhere. But what you just heard I think is important.

And I think that Republicans have to figure out what the message is going to be, because a lot of people are confused. There’s a lot of fear. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the wake of this decision. And so, my argument would be, look. Most Republicans should focus on nine-month abortions. And that’s what Blake Masters is doing right now.

You sent me the video, like, kind of trying to lay it out because the extreme position, to me, the vast majority of Americans believe that third-term abortions should not be legal, and they simultaneously believe — and again, I understand this a complex issue and a lot of people have a variety of opinions — that rape, incest, all of those should be exceptions, right, and that there should be a line somewhere, somewhere in the first trimester where this occurs, right?

Now, I understand this is a complex issue. But really there’s, like, 10% of people who say there should be no abortions allowed at all, and there’s about 10% of people that say, abortion should be legal all the way, basically, up to birth and even beyond.

BUCK: The difference is the Democrat Party’s official platform —

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: — is what you just laid out.

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: That is the official Democrat line.

CLAY: That is the perspective.

BUCK: And the Republican Party you can have people who say, “Here’s what I think are exceptions or no exceptions.” There’s actually variability among the GOP.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: True conservatives are — or rather, the conservative base is — pro-life; so, they’re overwhelmingly going to be in favor of no abortion or the absolute bare minimum restrictions on abortion. Democrat Party, it’s all nine months.

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: Anyone who says, “Oh, that’s not true,” it’s a matter of law. Look at what they just passed in Colorado: All nine months, no restriction whatsoever for any reason whatsoever.

CLAY: They didn’t vote on Roe v. Wade being codified as law. They voted in the Senate on the idea of abortion being permissible up to the ninth month, and I know it’s an uncomfortable conversation.

BUCK: Yeah, but we gotta have it, Clay, right? The Republicans have gotta have it. They gotta go on offense here. They gotta say, “Look, I’m sorry, folks. The Democrat Party is in favor of murder. Full stop. They’re in favor of legalized murder. That is the reality, scientific, moral, and ethical that we face right now,” instead of, you know, I don’t know what the opponent was saying in this New York 19th district.

But a lot of, “Oh, inflation, oh, inflation.” Yeah, okay, we know about the inflation. But, you know, the other problem is, Clay, that a lot of the inflation was spent under Trump. I hate to be the one that points this out, but they are actually making that case too. $6 trillion.

CLAY: Yeah. Well, look. And I think your point on inflation is well taken. At some point it just sets in and it’s the reality. And I do think that the price of gas coming down has, to some people, when you were paying $5 and now, you’re paying, whatever it is, 3.75 a gallon, like, it’s still super high. But it’s not as high as it was. And it’s continued to come back down. And so, in your head, as you are spending, the number one place where people notice inflation, Buck, is the gas tank, right?

When you’re filling up and it’s over a hundred dollars and that time, every time you drive by a gas station the price goes up, everybody notices it, even though inflation is still at 40-year highs, psychologically the fact that gas prices has come back I think has worked that Biden’s favor. But I think that abortion angle, that’s gonna be the attack. And for everybody out there who’s listening to us right now and is working on a congressional campaign or working on a Senate campaign or working on a governor’s campaign, you need to drill down with your candidate and figure out what your position is and make it.

And I think, Buck, yours, which is one we’ve argued here is, the Democrat position on abortion used to be safe, legal, and rare. Like, in the nineties, that’s what they would argue. That’s what Joe Biden argued for much of his career. Now it’s, you should be able to have an abortion in the ninth month of pregnancy and even be proud of it —

BUCK: The Democrat Party is open — and I mean they say this; it is true — they are openly pro infanticide.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: That is the reality of the Democrat Party today. It’s a harsh thing for people to hear. It is true. Otherwise explain the Colorado law. They won’t explain it. Notice the way this guy, Pat Ryan, just got elected in New York, said this was a referendum on freedom.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: Oh, really? It’s a referendum on freedom? The freedom to do what, exactly? They never speak honestly about the issue because they know the more people understand it, the more revolted by the official Democrat Party position they are. Again, I don’t think that in the key races that are gonna determine control of the House and the Senate abortion is gonna be even a top five issue —

CLAY: I hope you’re right. Trying to figure out, Buck —

BUCK: Suburban non-moms who drink wine get very upset about this, college-educated white females in particular, as a demographic, are really upset about this. But for a lot of other, folks, man there’s just more important stuff.

CLAY: What I see, Buck, is there are a lot of persuadable moms out there. I’m surrounded by moms, all right? So, where I live, I’m in the wheelhouse of suburban. And so many of those moms are still furious over covid. They’re furious that their kids were taken out of school, they’re furious that their kids had to wear masks, and many of them — who maybe traditionally would have never considered themselves to even consider voting Republican — they were all aggressively coming over.

And the way that Democrats are trying to persuade them not to, you could say, “Okay. Well, I don’t really… “Like, the reason why Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia was moms. He nailed it with suburban moms. They abandoned the Democrat Party over schools, over masking, over covid. And the way that Democrats are trying to pull ’em back is by saying — just so you know — if your 14-year-old gets pregnant, they’re going to have to have a baby. And that is going to be rattle some of those moms.

So, you have to talk about this in a rational way, you have to explain what Dobbs did, because there’s gonna be so much inflammatory stuff out there. I just think people need to be prepared for what the Democrat playbook is going to be. I hope you’re right. But my concern is there’s a lot of women out there listening to us right now in Sandy Springs, Georgia, right outside of Atlanta, making a decision about whether they’re gonna vote for Warnock or for Herschel Walker.

I’m concerned about how that’s gonna play there. There’s a lot of people listening to us right now, you know, in Scottsdale, Arizona. We’re massive in Phoenix. And they’re trying to decide are they gonna vote for Blake Masters. A lot of moms — we appreciate all of you — are deciding, are they gonna vote for Blake Masters or they gonna vote for the astronaut guy, Mark Kelly?

Blake Masters got a good argument up. These are the women, I think, that are gonna decide the election. Because a lot of people are not persuadable. I think they are, and I think we have to do a better job of persuading them.

BUCK: I don’t think it will be a top five issue. I think your read on this one is off, unfortunately.

CLAY: It is a top five issue for those women. I think it’s the number one issue, and those are the persuadable base, in my opinion.

BUCK: I mean, I think white working class male voters are going to determine the elections in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia maybe a little less so. But suburban women also I think will probably vote very much based on the candidate, right? So, this is where it gets into the, “Okay. Well, how does he talk about a whole range of issues?”

CLAY: Does he smile?

BUCK: You talk about Glenn Youngkin. Glenn Youngkin, very tall, pretty handsome, wears dad vests. I’m just saying.

CLAY: I’m just saying, the sex appeal of Glenn Youngkin is high.

BUCK: Got good hair, Clay. Respect.