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Clay and Buck

Clay and Buck

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Itโ€™s Official: The Biden Recession

28 Jul 2022

BUCK: The Fed chairโ€ฆ Itโ€™s a tough day. What does the Fed exist to do? What are they supposed to be getting done as their primaryโ€ฆ? You know that thing, โ€œYou had one job!โ€ Whatโ€™s the Fedโ€™s one job? Itโ€™s really to manage inflation. Thatโ€™s the primary thing. Have they done a good job at that? Does anybody think that the Fed it looks like theyโ€™re on it, looks like theyโ€™ve known whatโ€™s going on here?

No. If anything, politics have been driving so much of the economic decision-making in a reckless and an irresponsible fashion. And this was true during the pandemic when we hadโ€ฆ You gotta know some of these numbers. Itโ€™s jaw dropping when you really start to pull it all โ€” piece it all โ€” together. โ€œBetween 2019 and August 2021,โ€ this was in the Wall Street Journal.

โ€œThe U.S. money supply โ€ฆ grew by $5.5 trillion, a stunning 35.7% increase in only a year and a half, driven primarily by the Fedโ€™s purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.โ€ So, the Journal โ€œestimate[s] that by the end of 2024 the money supply will grow another $5.1 trillion.โ€ We are running an experiment to see how quickly we can get inflation to go in the wrong direction, or we have been running that experiment until they finally started bringing rates up.

And now weโ€™re in for the pain. This is all cause and effect. If you run up credit card bills, if you spend too much money on a credit card, in the beginning, itโ€™s great. Youโ€™re like, โ€œIโ€™m just great! Look at me! Iโ€™ve got a new jet ski. Iโ€™ve just bought a whole bunch of new golf clubs,โ€ whatever it is, right? And it can feel like, โ€œWell, thatโ€™s not anything to worry about because it just goes on my credit card.โ€ But, yeah, then you have to start paying the balance down โ€” and if you donโ€™t do that, then you have to start dealing with the 20% or 29% APR, whatever it is.

Thatโ€™s how people really get behind, right? As you know, first thing you want to pay down is high interest things like credit cards whenever you can. But a lot of people are gonna be running up those credit card bills right now because of the overall trajectory of the economy. But itโ€™s cause and effect for you as an individual. Why isnโ€™t that clear at the government level as well? You print too much money; youโ€™re gonna have inflation. Some of us were saying, including me, you canโ€™t shut down your economy because thereโ€™s a virus out there that youโ€™re not gonna stop anyway.

You canโ€™t just send people checks to stay home. Thereโ€™s going to be a hangover from this. Welcome to the hangover. You canโ€™t just spend $2 trillion as Joe Biden did right off the bat when he comes into office in addition to I just told you about the trillions that were spent to expand the money supply. What did they think was gonna happen? Thatโ€™s what I really want to ask some of these people. I want to ask Jerome Powell?

I want to ask some of these experts, what exactly did you think the result was going to be? You thought it wouldnโ€™t be this? Remember, they thought inflation was gonna be โ€” they told us inflation would be โ€” transitory. That was absurd. Theyโ€™ve also been saying for months now and up until the last few days there wonโ€™t be a recession. We are in a recession. And I donโ€™t think itโ€™s gonna be a quick one. I think itโ€™s gonna get ugly out there in the economy for at least 12 to 18 months.

Itโ€™s gonna be a lot of economic suffering. Thereโ€™s gonna be job losses. Youโ€™re probably heading into the stagflation that we saw in the seventies and the early eighties. This was preventable, but there were people in charge who make really bad decisions, and thatโ€™s the part of this that there has to be accountability for and theyโ€™re doing everything they can right now. The spin you will feel, youโ€™re gonna get dizzy from it. Youโ€™re gonna get dizzy from it.

โ€œOh, itโ€™s not really a recession! Oh, this is justโ€ฆ Weโ€™re on the right path.โ€ What does the wrong path feel like? Someone should ask Joe Biden that. If this is the right path, what is the wrong path? How does that look โ€” 15% inflation 20% inflation? I think, you know, if we turn into Venezuela I think weโ€™re all gonna realize that weโ€™re on the wrong path.

But what are our options? Biden told us that he would shut down the virus, he would not shut down the economy. Which one of those feels like itโ€™s been more shut down, exactly? The Fed chairman Jerome Powell is trying to tell everybody that heโ€™s not about to get into the definitions of this; they donโ€™t make a judgment on that. But, you know, thereโ€™s some good stuff.

BUCK: They keep telling us how great the labor market is. I come across individuals all the time who are saying they canโ€™t get people to do jobs, and so theyโ€™re limited in their productivity. Everything from people in aerospace and defense to restaurants to, you know, operating your local department store or drugstore or whatever. They canโ€™t get workers. This is how the great labor market is supposed to be operating? And then you say, โ€œWell, shouldnโ€™t they just pay them more, theyโ€™ll get them?โ€

Well, they say they canโ€™t. Thereโ€™s supply chain disruptions. Theyโ€™ve already had to raise prices. In fact, theyโ€™re raising prices some of the biggest companies in the world. There was a big piece earlier the week โ€” early this week โ€” in the Journal about that too. Theyโ€™re just gonna pass on costs. You think you felt the costs already. More costs are gonna be passed on to the consumer. But what do you think the people in chargeโ€ฆ?

What do you think Biden, his economic propagandists, the Fed chairman, what do you think theyโ€™re gonna say? โ€œSorry, weโ€™re idiotsโ€? No. Of course not. Theyโ€™re gonna say, โ€œOh, this is great.โ€ In fact, this was the best. The White House trying to tell the American people that recessionโ€ฆ You think recession means bad things, but let me tell you, peasants, White House wants you to know, the recession is actually really good and healthy.

BUCK: Does anybody feel like this is a good economy? I would love that explanation from people that are just trying to pay their bills and have some financial stability in their lives. They feel like things are going well right now? A lot of people miss that era of the mean tweets or that guy that was in charge that they said was doing Russiaโ€™s bidding. Stock market was booming, unemployment, real unemployment was very low. Labor force participationโ€ฆ They keep talking about the unemployment rate.

You still have millions fewer people working now than before the pandemic. โ€œOh, but itโ€™s aโ€ฆ Bidenโ€™s created millions of jobs!โ€ Yeah. Just feel all that prosperity while youโ€™re paying $4.30 a gallon for gas and everything, youโ€™re buying at the grocery store is 15 to 20% more expensive, and your wages arenโ€™t keeping up with inflation and, yeah, all that prosperity. They just want to evade accountability, folks. Theyโ€™ll lie to you. Thatโ€™s what this really comes down to. They want to evade accountability for their bad decision-making, for their belief that they know how to allocate the capital of the American people better than the market.

Thatโ€™s whatโ€™s going on.

Now weโ€™re all seeing it; weโ€™re all feeling it.

Clay and Buck
Clay and Buck

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