Is a Crowded GOP Primary Better for Trump?

CLAY: We have talked about the disaster that is Joe Biden. We have talked about the disaster that is Kamala Harris, Mayor Pete, Hillary Clinton, whoever you want to insert as the potential Democrat candidate in 2024, the bench is very slim. There are not a lot of great options. Flip side. January 6th… Let’s be honest. As Buck and I have told you for a long time, is really just about trying to make Donald Trump not a viable 2024 candidate. Now, I actually think January 6th makes him far more likely to run because he wants to be able to fire back at all of his critics.

But there are right now a lot of Republicans doing the groundwork, doing all the behind-the-scenes details to get ready to be able to run themselves. And I was reading this morning, Buck, Washington Post has a monster profile piece on Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin and the fact that he just went up to New York City to raise money from some of the biggest money Republican supporters in New York, where we were, by the way, at the same time.

Youngkin is aggressively exploring a potential run for president. We know and have talked about the fact that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is also exploring his own run, and interestingly — and we’ll play the audio for you on this in a little bit — Joe Rogan came out and said that he thinks that Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida could be a good option as well. Mike Pompeo seems like he is gonna run. I think it’s fair to say Mike Pence is gonna run. All of this, Buck, leads to an interesting question.

Are there actually going to be so many Republicans running that Trump is going to think twice about it? Or the more Republicans that run, is it actually better for Trump because we know that whatever cadre of the Republican Party, let’s say, are die-hard MAGA people and let’s say it’s a third of all Republican voters. I’m just tossing out a number. Could be higher. Could be lower. Is that better for Trump? In other words, the more people who decide to jump in in 2024, do you think that impacts the way that Trump himself, Buck, is thinking about the idea of running and/or as more people running, does it make him maybe even more likely because his path to nomination could be even easier.

BUCK: If you look at the 2015-2016 period and who got into the Republican Party primary there —

CLAY: Yeah, it was 19, I think.

BUCK: That’s right, 19. There was 19 candidates, and Trump very early on — and this is often I think forgotten. It should get more attention. Trump jumped out ahead of everybody in terms of an individual level of support as soon as he took immigration and ran with it and build the wall and we’re gonna make Mexico pay for it and we’re gonna deport illegal immigrants who come here without respect for our laws. That was the issue that really, yeah, of course Trump, super well known, all of that.

But it was on immigration more than any other issue that he separated himself from the rest of the field. If you look at how that played out, I think you’d have to come away believing — you can never prove this — that it was helpful to then Donald Trump, now president or former president Trump, that you had so many different candidates. This time around, Clay, I just think there are so many possibilities here, I think there are so many what-ifs, that it’s really hard to get a sense of it. There are going to be people on the Republican side who just want to up their national profile — and, by the way, I don’t say this disparagingly.

There are some candidates for whom running is the opportunity to maybe get their perspective as a conservative, as a Republican heard. For example, I would say someone like Senator Rand Paul, who we’ve had on the show many times, never came close, really, in the polls to winning the Republican nomination, but he was a guy who every time he was on stage I’m like, “I’m glad that Senator Paul is there being heard on these issues. I’m glad the party has somebody with his perspective there.”

So I don’t say, “Oh, they’re just gonna run. They’re not gonna win.” There are some other people who want to up their speaking fees and get the book deals, and I’m a capitalist. I’m not hating on that. But, you know, they’re gonna run a big book tour or they’re gonna go on the big speaking tour and that’s what it’s all about. But you’re gonna… One thing I do know — I mean, instead of just doing all the possibilities and the what-ifs, one thing I do know — is if you look at the Republican bench of possible contenders, you’ve got really serious people.

CLAY: It’s deep. It’s deep.

BUCK: I’m not trying to upset anybody who is die-hard, Trump is gonna run again and Trump is gonna win again. That could well happen and that will be great. But if you look at the other people on the Republican bench just to give a strength of the Republican Party, Ron DeSantis obviously has practically worked a miracle in the state of Florida — one, as a New Yorker who used to escape to Florida in the pandemic I feel very personally attached to. Glenn Youngkin is doing a really good job in Virginia. There’s a whole bunch of people, I know. A lot of Ted Cruz supporters in our audience who would love to see him run again, right?

CLAY: Tim Scott. A lot of people want Tim Scott.

BUCK: Tim Scott.

CLAY: A lot of people want Nikki Haley. There’s a long list.

BUCK: These are all serious people who I think would do a good job. Just a question of who would do the best job and who would win against whoever the Democrat is. We don’t even know who the Democrat is, of course, really.

CLAY: I think one reason you’re seeing so many people put their name in the hat — you’re right — because there are some people who say maybe I’ve got a 2% chance of being the nominee and they just decide, “I could at least elevate my profile.” The Democrats’ bench is so weak and their potential candidate is so weak. I think it feels a little bit… One of my buddies made this analogy. He said the Republicans right now are like the SEC in college football. Whoever comes out of the SEC is probably gonna win the national championship and then the Democrats are just gonna toss up somebody who gets wrecked in that championship.

BUCK: We’re a year into this show, and I understand that analogy.

CLAY: You got that analogy.

BUCK: I got it, baby. I’m locked in! SEC football, I know some things.

CLAY: I apologize to all the Big Ten listeners out there and all the Big 12 and PAC-12 and ACC fan bases. But in general, the SEC right now is, to me, akin to the Republican presidential primary candidates. The best team out of the SEC is gonna run roughshod over whoever the Democrats put up, which is the best team in the rest of the country. This is Joe Rogan. I referenced this and said we would hear it. Here is Joe Rogan on his podcast — it’s one of the most popular podcasts in the world — discussing with Gina Carano from The Daily Wire, fired at the Mandalorian for not having the right opinions.

BUCK: She’s a top MMA fighter for a while, right?

CLAY: Yeah, as well. Here they are discussing the idea of Ron DeSantis. Listen.

BUCK: I’m really happy to hear Joe Rogan say that because Ron DeSantis was correct about how he dealt with covid in Florida. There is no good-faith argument to be had against him based on the numbers. The numbers are in. The data is in. It’s like we ran a race and Ron DeSantis was the first one across the finish tape. So there’s that. But also, just to point it out, Ron DeSantis is in a great spot. But after last week as well, Donald Trump, most pro-life president in history. And with those judges, not only do we have that Roe v. Wade decision, we’re gonna have two good decisions coming down most likely, I’m assuming tomorrow.

CLAY: This fall.

BUCK: We may see the end of affirmative action. I think that’s gonna happen this fall. So it’s been a big… It’s been a big month for Trump, and I think it’s been a big first couple of quarters for Governor DeSantis when you look at the growth in Florida. So I’m just trying to say, “Man, we look at our side when we’re sitting here talking about it and we’re comparing awesomeness,” and look at their side, where it’s like, “Yeah, maybe. I don’t know. Maybe they’re gonna have who? Pete Buttigieg?”

CLAY: Yeah. The View said the dream candidate and team was Kamala Harris and Mayor Pete.

BUCK: That would be awesome. I actually —

CLAY: And I think all of you out there… (laughing) I can barely say it with a straight face.

BUCK: Can we donate to the Mayor Pete-Kamala super PAC? ‘Cause we need get that going.

CLAY: Buck, they spent a lot of money in Colorado and Illinois, Democrats did, trying to pick their opponents. It failed in Colorado, may have won in Illinois. But I kind of think maybe they bought off something they don’t want to really be taking on. But if right now I could choose, if I could pencil in Kamala Harris, president; Mayor Pete, vice president, I would sign up to run any Republican we just mentioned against that ticket.

And just circling back around on how we started this, I think January 6th is blowing up in Democrats’ faces. They thought that they were going to remove Donald Trump from the 2024 contender list. I think what they’re doing is actually guaranteeing that he run because they’re infuriating him and not letting him just kind of ride off into the sunset. They’re trying to put him in jail, and if you’re Donald Trump, you want the vindication. “I don’t want to go to jail, but I also want to kick Yu ass and be president.”

BUCK: We were talking about grizzly bears before because it’s that kind of show. We talk about a lot of things. Don’t poke the Trump grizzly bear, folks. It’s bigger, stronger, and faster than you think, libs. You know? It’s not a good idea. Keep a hundred yards from the Trump grizzly, libs, I’m telling you.

CLAY: They’re gonna get mauled, and a lot of us are gonna enjoy it.