CNN Midterm Forecast: GOPโs Best Position in 80 Years
7 Jun 2022
CLAY: Itโs getting bad out there for Democrats. When CNN โ which all of a sudden has decided they want to go back to news. Theyโve got a new leader, and the new leader is saying, โHey, we may get rid of Jim Acosta. We may get rid of,โ whatโs our buddyโs name, โBrian Stelter.โ All of the most anti-Trump, incredibly partisan CNN people are suddenly on the chopping block.
And thereโs suddenly news thatโs starting to break through on CNN. It feels like almost on a daily basis now there is a legitimate job being done by some members of the media at CNN to actually discuss whatโs really going on. And big picture here, we are five months and a day away from the midterms.
Where do we sit at five months and a day? We are in, right now, a period in time when Joe Bidenโs regime is starting to throw up Hail Marys, when the Democrats are starting to desperately try and score touchdowns without any basis behind them. Thatโs really what Thursday is. Weโll talk some more about Thursday, Iโm sure, and react to it, for certain, on Friday, when the prime-time January 6 hearing occurs.
But hereโs what the conversation was on CNN as, right now, as we speak, Republicans are in the best position they have been in the midterms in over 80 years, going all the way back, I believe, to 1938. Listen to CNNโs Harry Enten put this into context.
Data points to a November blowout, CNNโs Harry Enten say, telling Jake Tapper that the GOP is currently in โthe best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years.โ pic.twitter.com/V3vevMlIXJ
โ Virginia Kruta (@VAKruta) June 7, 2022
CLAY: That would be a monumental resetting of the House of Representatives. We donโt know exactly how it would break in the Senate, but if Republicans are winning that big it would be hard pressed, you would think, for Republicans not to also take the Senate. Buck, I was reading the Cook Political Report because Iโm a nerd, and they said thereโs basically 53 seats that are in any way winnable by one party or the other.
Thereโs 435 House seats; 53 of them, after redistricting โ according to Cook Political Report โ are actually up in the mix. What do you think is going to happen, and are you with me that weโre at Hail Mary time right now for Democrats where theyโre trying to distract from baby formula shortages, from inflation, from gas prices to go over $5 a gallon for the first time in this country? Does it feel Hail Mary time to you?
BUCK: Absolutely. This is whyโฆ Weโll talk to you a little bit about the January 6 prime time whatever it is theyโre planning in a couple of days. Theyโre bringing in a former, what is it? A Today show, one of those producers to make it really pop on the screen. Itโs all theatrics. Itโs literally theatrics. Theyโre just doing this to try to create spectacle to distract from exactly what youโre talking about.
And one of our duties here, I think, is always to make sure that we present at least the best argument that the other side has in any debate. What are they offering up? What are they saying? If you get into an argument with your neighbor Bob or Bill or whatever, over the grill or in the backyard, whatโs he going to say as a Democrat, and whatโs the argument going to be?
The Biden regime right now doesnโt have a compelling argument, period, full stop. All they have is what weโve been seeing, which is misdirection, outright lying, distraction techniques with the January 6 โinsurrection.โ Can you imagine, by the way? Imagine what theyโre really saying. And anyone who calls it an insurrection is lying to you or is not very smart.
Thatโs a baseline theory that Iโve had all along here. Mostly the people on CNN and others are lying about it, Clay. They know itโs not an insurrection. A bunch of unarmed people, mostly guilty of parading in a government building, can overthrow the United States government with its millions of employees, with its multi-trillion dollars of spending, with its 16 โ or now 17, I guess โ intelligence agencies with the most powerful military on the planet?
A bunch of grandmas taking selfies inside the Capitol is going to overthrow the government? People say, โWhat about the ones who attacked the cop?โ Yeah, thatโs bad. They should go to prison. But if youโre a leftist โ and you just probably saw this, Clay โ these two lawyers in Brooklyn from the 2020 George Floyd riots, Colinford Mattis and Urooj Rahman, were able to pull their plea deal. Federal prosecutors said, โEh, thatโs okay!โ These are the ones who fire bombed a police car during the George Floyd riots.
CLAY: Molotov cocktail, right?
BUCK: Molotov cocktail. People say, โItโs not a weapon of war.โ Actually, it is. Itโs from the Winter War when the Fins were fighting the Soviets, and Molotov was a Soviet foreign minister, and the Molotov cocktail was used to throw at Russian or Soviet armor. They were able to pull their previous plea deal, Clay โ this is quite a sweetheart situation โ and plead to lesser charge. They said, โYeah, weโre guilty; weโll take the plea deal.โ Now that people arenโt paying attention itโs, โWeโll take a plea to a lesser charge.โ I bring it up because you have people for nonviolent crimes in solitary confinement for a year for January 6.
CLAY: Yeah, still.
BUCK: Still. And we see all this and you say, โWhatโs really going on in this country right now. What are the people in charge doing to reinforce your faith in the government? Whatโs the media doing to make any of us believe that the Democrat corporate media has even a hint of ethics?โ And the answer is theyโve got nothing, Clay. Theyโve got nothing.
CLAY: Yeah, I think youโre right. And this is why I wanted to play this cut, too, because I saw it and I said this is so transparent what they are trying to do. The January 6 hearing, which is going to take place on Thursday โ and as we told you the timing on this is really bad, in that most people arenโt paying attention. But also, the next morning theyโre going to get the latest inflation numbers. So whatever legs you thought were going to exist from your January 6 big public hearing, in prime time, the next morning you are going to find out how bad things are as it relates to inflation. And, by the way, I donโt think inflation will have come down very much.
And certainly, everybody out there driving around right now listening to us, looking at the different gas prices as theyโre driving down the road, as they tick closer and closer to $5 a gallon is not feeling that way. But hereโs NBCโs, one of their commentators, saying they need to make everyone focus on the January 6 investigation and ignore gas prices and baby formula shortages.
I donโt know. That doesnโt seem like a very easy thing to get Americans to shift their notice on. Are you going to pay attention to something that happened 18 months ago that has no impact on your life right now, or are you going to pay attention to the fact you canโt find baby formula to feed your baby and gas prices are at an all-time high, just about to go over $5. This is the Jedi mind trick that Democrats are trying to. Listen.
CLAY: This is not going to work, Buck. This is one of the all-time ridiculous arguments to make. Whatever your political leanings are, the price of gas impacts you way more right now than anything that happened on January 6.
BUCK: These emotional-impact issues that theyโre talking about โ whether itโs January 6 or Roe v. Wade, the focus on gun control right now โ thatโs just not going to get it done in any contested election, at least in my opinion, and also on the Roe v. Wade issue, what weโve already seen is it didnโt move the needle. It basically stayed constant even when the Supreme Court, we believe, showed its hand that Roe is likely to be overturned โ and thatโs going to happen within a matter of a few weeks. That decision will come down.
Youโre also hearing cries or calls for gun control at a time when youโre going to see the Supreme Court, I believe, slap down New York Cityโs absurd and unconstitutional gun-licensing regime. So thatโs going to take the wind out of the sails there a little bit. And, Clay, my hesitation with all this is just, youโll remember this and probably give me a play by play if I asked you for it, because I used to watch the NFL.
CLAY: (laughing)
BUCK: There was a Giant-49ers game, maybe a decade ago, where the Giants were up so much, and you thought it was over, and you just watched for two quarters as they were systematically dismantled and lost. I think it was one of the biggest leads lost in a playoff game of all time.
CLAY: Yes. Thatโs where you feel like we are right now.
BUCK: I donโt want to be complacent. You said 53 seats are up.
CLAY: Thatโs what the Politico report said are viable can swing one direction or the other, basically 90%, or 88%, or whatever it is, of the seats are already Republican or Democrat, pretty solidly.
BUCK: We should set a GOP target for this midterm election, anything less than 50 seats is unacceptable.
CLAY: I think that is, in my opinion, a wildly optimistic number.
BUCK: Of course it is.
CLAY: Only for this reason โ
BUCK: What am I going to say?
CLAY: Only for this reason, because everyone forgets that the Republicans had a pretty good run in 2020. Right? And so they won back a decent number of seats that they would have won back in a landslide election. I would set the over/under at 30. Thatโs where I would put the number right now.
BUCK: I say we target 50 and maybe we donโt all have to do push-ups in the gymnasium after practice, if itโs 30/40.
CLAY: By the way, are you surprisedโฆ? Because I am a little bit a little bit. I know guns have become the new focus, but it was only a couple weeks ago, Buck, where we were saying, โHey, theyโre showing up at all these Supreme Court justice homes. They were going to protest.โ It feels like that totally vanished, didnโt it?
BUCK: For the Supreme Court, first of all, it was illegal, and it became increasingly problematic for Democrats who are legal experts to go on TV and act like we canโt read. This is the thing. No offense to the lawyer here, this is the thing some lawyers do where they act like weโre all bound by laws and canโt read the statute and understand ourselves a little bit sometimes.
CLAY: Yeah.
BUCK: Weโre not talking about patent law here. Weโre talking about you cannot be outside of a judgeโs home to intimidate them. I think they realized that the base โ or, rather, the activists during all this stuff โ were starting to look pretty crazy and that what was going on in a midterm election was bad.
CLAY: Youโre alienating suburban women by protesting suburban homes.
BUCK: Democrats are hoping to make a huge base turnout obviously โ this is true in California and New York, et cetera, and Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, anywhere where they think itโs competitive elections, Georgia, youโll have Democrats all of the sudden the night before the election saying, โIโm a moderate, gun-toting, love-America Democrat.โ All of a sudden, theyโll change the tone in those races and places and hope the national party isnโt a drag on them.
CLAY: I just think itโs amazing how quickly that has died. You asked the question: What do you believe that Democrats are going to run on? I think itโs going to be abortion and guns. I think thatโs the only thing they can run on.
BUCK: Neither of those moves the needle. If they do that, by the way, I think we could win over 40 seats, legitimately.
CLAY: I donโt disagree with you. But I donโt know what else they can run on. They canโt run on inflation. They canโt run on stock market. They can run on the border or crime.
BUCK: They used to tell me in the CIA, donโt overestimate or underestimate your opponents. Maybe they donโt have anything. Theyโre going to try this January 6 thing and theyโre just going to cry a lot while weโre having our party after the election in Nashville.
CLAY: I think January 6 is way less effective than even abortion or guns would be. I think itโs going to be an abortion/guns race, that thatโs what theyโre going to try to turn into an issue. Which means if thereโs any kind of gun legislation that comes out that there could be some big political move where โ it wouldnโt shock me, itโs just a little bit of a prediction โ that Democrats decide theyโre not willing to take whatever small measure of changes to the laws they might get and argue politically that they need to leave it to the will of the American voter in the midterms. Just tossing that out there, because honestly, I think itโs going to be an absolute destruction, and I donโt know what else they can argue.
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