CLAY: Now, I am either going to say something, where a year from now, you guys are going to be like, “Wow. This was a brilliant comment from Clay.” Or hopefully, if I’m wrong, all of you are going to forget I ever said it.

BUCK: You are calling a shot here, into the upper deck, and then saying you’re going to come back in the next inning and do it funny.

CLAY: Yeah. This is like Babe Ruth calling multiple shots, home runs, pointing and say where it’s going to happen. So yesterday afternoon, evening, CNN breaks news that things on the Hunter Biden front are becoming increasingly tumultuous. Basically, we’re reaching the climax point of these — interesting point given all the Hunter Biden videos out there, that we are reaching a point of decision, to be made, as to whether Hunter Biden is going to be charged or not, for a variety of different crimes. And that Merrick Garland is weighing, whether charges will be brought or not and worrying potentially about the midterms and whether it’s too political in nature, to be bringing charges against Hunter Biden right now.

So the significant thing to me about this, Buck, was that CNN was breaking the news. And then everybody followed up. Fox News had their own report. Politico, everybody else. But CNN broke this news. And CNN is basically Pravda for the Biden administration Democrats in general. So, the fact that CNN would break this, makes it feel as if Democrats are okay with it happening. So, here was my immediate thought, as I read the CNN report yesterday evening. My thought was, and we have tonight another Jan 6 hearing. And there is continuing pressure on Attorney General Merrick Garland to bring charges against Donald Trump, related to January 6. Tell me if I’m calling my shot Babe Ruth-style with back-to-back home runs, but pointing in both directions.

I believe that they’re going to bring charges against Hunter Biden. And when they bring charges against Hunter Biden, Merrick Garland will come out and say, “Even though it’s the president’s son, our job is to be an independent judiciary, and not to treat anyone favorably based on their relationship with the current president.” And then, that will open the door, to forcing Joe Biden out, which is what Democrats want, because they don’t want him running again in 2024 and if his son gets charged, Biden is effectively done.

But then it also then allows Merrick Garland to file charges against Trump, and then argue, these are not politically motivated. Just as I brought charges against Hunter Biden for violations of the law, I will also bring charges against Donald Trump for violations of the law. I think he uses the Hunter Biden charges as cover politically for being able to bring charges against Donald Trump. Your thoughts on that idea?

BUCK: Okay. So this would — you know, back in the old CIA days, do an analysis. You would call it a “low probability, high impact scenario.” Right?

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: I wouldn’t say that the Hunter charges of any kind are a super low probability.

CLAY: Let’s start with that one. Let’s start with the Hunter. Are you at all nervous — we have the steak dinner on the line. Do you think it’s more likely than not, or still less likely than not, and Hunter gets charged based on the new news?

BUCK: No. I’m going to really hammer this home by ordering like the lobster meat they put on top of the lobster steak, just to be really over the top, you know. I don’t think they’re going to bring criminal charges against Hunter. Although, to be fair, I think when you said that initially, I’m like, Clay is a great guy, ut I think he’s ahead of his skis a little bit, to, it’s not outrageous. Right? Because the protection that Joe Biden would have offered Hunter a year ago, as they would have not been willing to go against the party. The Democrat Party interest was absolute. I don’t think that’s absolute anymore. So that is a different.

CLAY: Because Biden’s use, we agree, to the Democrat Party is basically over.

BUCK: Yes. Yes. The Biden’s use to the Democrats — I think they’re starting to view him perhaps as a liability.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: No one has even thought of this. What if all the advisers around him said, “Hey, old guy, time for you to say because of health reasons.” And he goes, “No, I don’t want to.” We assume he’s not, but it’s going to Kamala? So there’s that possibility.

The bringing charges against Trump is certainly something that they want to indicate to their base, the congressional Democrats, who have been setting this all up, want their base voters to believe that that’s where all of this is going.I think it’s unlikely that they’ll actually do it though, because the one, the political precedent that it would set, right?

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: Would be massive. Now, I think the Democrats are craven, but I do think that they also have some fear of the blowback that they could get at a certain level. But you’re talking about making a big call here. So, yeah. It’s low probability, high impact. You could call it a black swan event, or a fat tail event, right, where it’s very unlikely, but if it did happen, it’s a really big deal.

I think that we’re getting closer and closer to where the resolution of the Hunter Biden criminal probe, which is about taxes. It’s also been noted in the CNN report, that you’re not allowed to be a drug addict, vecause you have to fill out a form, to get a handgun. You’re not allowed to be a drug addict, to get a gun. That’s actually a no, no. That’s a federal crime. So he’s guilty of that too. I think they’ll let him skate on that, because they’ll say, well, was he a drug addict when he signed it? They’ll find some way around that. That’s a tough one to prove.

On the tax issue, I think they’re going to find a way for him to take some slap on the wrist, pay some fine, deferred prosecution thing, which still means you’re buying a steak, by the way. If he has to actually take a plea to a criminal charge, you win. If it’s a real criminal charge. If it’s a civil charge, that doesn’t count, right?

CLAY: Criminal charges. It’s just whether he will be charged.

BUCK: A criminal charge, not with a civil fine or something, right? That’s special treatment right? You or I not declaring millions of dollars from Ukrainian gas companies opinion or Chinese oligarchs or whatever, we wouldn’t be paying a little fine, chief. You and I know that.

CLAY: Yeah.

BUCK: So now he real calculation, I just, and this is what you’re getting to, is at this level, it becomes a political question. Is Hunter Biden protected because Joe Biden is still important enough to the apparatus, that they will ignore clear violations of federal law, in order to make sure that they don’t hurt the party, and hurt Joe Biden’s chances of reelection? I don’t think that question now has an obvious answer. Whereas, a year ago, I think it was, you know, Hunter Biden could do whatever he wanted. And he has kind of done whatever he wanted for a long time.

CLAY: I think the political nature of it. Merrick Garland is going to sit back. And I think the only way he can charge Trump, is if Hunter Biden also gets charged. That’s how I come to my prediction of what he’s going to end up doing. Because the evidence out there on Hunter Biden is overwhelming, that he has committed multiple felonies. And these aren’t necessarily very difficult, I don’t believe, cases to make on many different fronts surrounding Hunter Biden. I think there’s probably 20 felonies, that are just are on that laptop, that you could reach in, if you were an aggressive prosecutor, and decide that you were going to take that path to charge him. So that is not even remotely difficult.

To me, if he is going to charge Hunter Biden, effectively, that is the Democrats acknowledging that they have to get Joe Biden off the stage. That they have to do whatever it takes to get him out of running in 2024. And this is their way to take him out. Simultaneously, I think that that would allow Merrick Garland in his own mind, the attorney general, to bring charges, mainly of a relatively low level, potentially conspiracy charges, against Donald Trump, with the idea being that will knock him out of being the Republican nominee in the upcoming primaries. I think that remains to be seen, because there are a lot of people listening to us right now, Buck, that if Trump got charged, by the Biden Department of Justice, would actually just confirm everything that he’s ever said, and might work to his benefit, and I think it makes it more likely, that Trump would run. Because probably the best way to forestall prosecution from the government, is by becoming the head of the government.

BUCK: Well, I’m going to jump on the Clay’s Crazy Prognostication Train, The Nashville Nostradamus Express here. Imagine if they charge Trump, and then Biden pardons him in an act of supposed magnanimity, to make it seem like — because, remember, if they charge Trump, what if he beats it?

CLAY: I mean, if he gets elected, he could theoretically pardon himself right?

BUCK: They would probably finish it before he could get elected.

CLAY: I think you drag it out for years. If you’re Trump. You could drag iota this criminal case forever. To the point, where you become elected president and then just, you’re the head of the Department of Justice then, basically. And you wipe out. That’s why I think it makes it more likely, ultimately, if they charge him, that he runs. Like, if you were actually run through the political calculus, and say, okay. Democrats, we hate Trump. What’s the worst thing we could do within to make it more likely that Trump with a would run. I think it’s do everything they’e done, January 6th hearings leading to charges being filed.

Ignoring Trump would be the best — like, “Oh, he was okay. Like the most destructive thing Democrats could say to Trump is, “He was a pretty good president. I think we can just find somebody better.”

BUCK: Oh, they are poking the bear for sure. He is a big bear. I would not poke.

CLAY: Yes. Yes. So that is my call. And I will either look brilliant over the next six to eight months. Or we’ll pretend this clip never happened.