BUCK: We’ve been watching this now for what feels like weeks and perhaps longer, really. The buildup started before the end of last year, and now what we’ve got is at least what could be some sense of the early phase of the Putin-backed incursion. But, Clay, what’s going on right now is you’ve got Putin, apparently, had a meeting of his security council today which has been describing it as bonkers, in which the decision was made to defend the…

This is in quotes, of course: “defend” the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Now, those are the two parts of eastern Ukraine that have been de facto Russian-controlled separatist regions now stretching back to 2014. Who was president in 2014 again? Oh, that’s right. Interesting. We’ll get into this in a moment. But Democrats are in charge, Putin gets really aggressive. Trump is the Russian agent, they said, and they were real quiet for about four years on this stuff.

But there’s the idea there would be a false flag operation perhaps or some kind of provocation in those two regions where they say that they have been attacked. There are already some efforts to evacuate. Russians are evacuating in Ukraine people in the separatist regions because they say Ukraine, Clay… I know this is confusing, but it’s meant to be confusing and crazy and not really believable and yet creating some fig leaf.

They’re trying to pull people out of these areas so then they say Ukraine is attacking so then Russia will attack, and this is the whole idea of how they’ll then claim to be defending Russian-speaking people. We have a very complicated situation, a lot of people around the border. Here’s the issue. On the outside of this, the only thing that’s gonna stop…

I’m not sure anything can stop at this point. I think if Putin decides to go in, he’s going in. I don’t think anyone can stop him. There’s nothing on the table that would stop him right now, but there’s certainly pressure that could be brought diplomatically and from the U.S. side, and the European ally side of things. You want to know who is in charge. Here is the kind of stuff I think that does not make Putin stay up late night with worry. Play 14.

REPORTER: Can you explain to Americans what exactly will they face if this happens?

HARRIS: Sure. As the president said in his speech, we are aware that, again, when America stands on principles and all of the things that we hold dear, it requires for us sometimes for us to put ourselves out there in a way that maybe we will incur some costs. And in this situation, that may relate to energy costs, for example. But we are taking very specific and appropriate, I believe, steps to mitigate what that cost might be if it happens.

BUCK: Why does Kamala always sound like the student that didn’t do the homework but is trying to answer the question anyway?

CLAY: I don’t even understand her analysis or answer there at all. But this is one of the weirdest stories that I can ever remember, not just Kamala’s involvement, but it is funny, as you pointed out several weeks ago, the idea that America’s more concerned about Ukraine’s border than we are our own southern border is at this point without dispute. But, Buck, to have this play out, this has to be an incredible intelligence world that we’re in.

Because basically you’re playing out in real time everything publicly in terms of, “Hey, we expect they’re gonna go in.” Remember last week we were told, “Hey, we expect that invasion is gonna happen Wednesday.” I think the 16th was the discussion point of when we expected them to go, and then it’s, “Oh, we expect them to go in over the weekend.” Well, Biden is now very sure that Putin is actually going to invade.

And we get all these very specific, detailed briefings and leaks about what’s going on in Ukraine. Now the Olympics is over, which has been one of the questions I had: Was Putin ever going to actually invade while China was hosting the Olympics, given the relationship now between Putin and Xi? But all of this is really a strange gobbledygook for lack of a better way of describing it. So, my question is: Are you more convinced now that Putin is gonna go in than you were last week? Less convinced? How would you analyze all of the different conflicting data sets out there in terms of what Putin’s gonna actually do?

BUCK: I think he’s going in, and I think the question that I can’t — I mean, no one knows, right, but the one that I still go back and forth on is will it be a blitzkrieg style go all in, all at once, multiple fronts of attack against Ukraine to try to not just seize a critical infrastructure and destroy any major military sites the Ukrainian armed forces have but to topple the government as fast as possible. Essentially just make this the blitzkrieg.

We know what the word means, right? “Lightning war.” That’s one option. The other, though, when they’re talking about these separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and the possibility of officially recognizing these break-away regions, we may have what I would call dynamic incursion where they’re going to escalate and then deescalate a little bit and then escalate and deescalate. So that would mean they put in troops.

But let’s say they just put troops in Luhansk and Donetsk, and then all these other troops sort of sit there as a reminder to the Ukrainian government, “Don’t go into those areas and try to actually take them back. We’re officially seizing them now.” What are you gonna do about it with 130,000-plus Russian troops in the periphery and then they consolidate that area and then maybe take something else?

So I think there are two pathways they can take. But the not gonna do anything military, just want concessions? How could Putin…? This isn’t saber rattling. This is waving your sword around in the air like a crazy person and making demands. People wouldn’t… I think that you can’t go to this length just for diplomatic concessions because Putin will want to do that again in the future on other things, and unless he mobilizes effectively a full invasion army, people aren’t gonna want to pay much attention to him, I think. Again, there are also people that say that Putin maybe has just gone a little bit crazy.

CLAY: Well, and that’s the number one question I hear is, if Russia’s not going to invade, what are they trying to get? It would be easier to understand, to me, if you could say, “Hey, this is the tangible goal. This is what he’s negotiating towards,” and he’s willing to put all these men and materialize right on the edge, the precipice of war in order to do it? It doesn’t feel like there’s some grand gain that he’s going to receive without invading.

BUCK: Yeah. Everyone’s been saying if he could get a guarantee, for example, that Ukraine would never enter NATO. That’s one of the big things people talk about. There’s oil and gas pipelines and concessions and economic things that I’m sure also are already in the picture, but, okay. Let’s say that they’re… What does that promise? The promise of the Budapest Memorandum which said that Russia, England, and America — Russia, U.K., and America — would defend Ukraine, that’s not looking like such a great promise.

CLAY: Well, and telling Ukraine, “Hey, if you give up your nuclear weapons you’ll never have to worry about your defense, either,” which they did.

BUCK: Yeah. Not trying to be smug about this, folks — it’s a very serious issue — but one of the lessons of this is never give up your nukes. We’ve been talking about that. That’s real. Never. You’re seeing this throughout history, don’t give up your nukes. That’s real, and then what would a promise not to have Ukraine and NATO look like when as far as Putin’s concerned what if in five years, they change their mind? So that’s why I think he’s going in. I just don’t know if it’s going to be a step-by-step escalation to seize pieces of territory or it’s the all-out war right away that some people, I think, are very concerned could break out literally any minute at this point.

CLAY: No doubt, and we’ve been sort of on tenterhooks for that entire process throughout.