CLAY: We know this bill, this $740 billion, got spent because Democrats are aware they’re gonna lose the House. I don’t see any way that is in question. It’s all about what kind of margin will Kevin McCarthy have as the new speaker of the House. But the Senate — Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia — we could lose all five of these. Like, we could. The odds are I think probably that we’re gonna get some form of a split. But all five of these states, if you’re listening to us — and I know a lot of you are in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, this is of massive and critical importance.

All five of these states — and we’re gonna talk with Herschel Walker at the top of the third hour here. He is going up against the Reverend Raphael Warnock down in Georgia. Dr. Oz is scheduled to be on with us Friday on the program. He’s going up against John Fetterman. We are gonna have Senator Ron Johnson on with us from Wisconsin. We have him on regularly. I know you had Blake Masters on last week. He is the nominee now in Arizona. We’re gonna do… We’ve had Adam Laxalt in Nevada on a lot. We’re gonna do everything that we can in these battleground states to check the power of Joe Biden and the Democrats in the Senate.

BUCK: Could we just remind everybody really quickly —

CLAY: These are on a fine line now what’s gonna happen there.

BUCK: — if they maintain the Senate, they’re going to stack the courts, ’cause they are already obviously very worried about that. We’ll talk about the Biden thing I know, Clay, you’re gonna lead us in that in a second. But if they maintain the Senate, they’re going to stack the judiciary with the most left-wing lunatics in the entire legal world they can possibly find. They’re gonna put true-believer leftists in all the federal agencies that they can.

Anybody who needs a confirmation. So even if we… The House is looking good, right? We’re not… We want a wave, and we want… The House is still looking like 90%, I think, on Nate Silver’s site, and he’s usually pretty accurate, likes to be accurate on the numbers. But I’m on Senate side, I’m with you. I’m worried. And they can do a lot of damage just with the Senate, is my point. A lot of things can go wrong.

CLAY: Gambling… Buck, I love to gamble, and I pay a lot of attention to the gambling odds, ’cause people can put their money down in Europe on what’s gonna happen in individual races. Democrats are now favored to have control of the Senate for the first time in 2022. In the last week, that flipped from a gambling perspective — again, these are people putting their money down. Democrats are favored to have control of the Senate. You mentioned all the judiciary appointments.

I would just point out: You never know when a Supreme Court justice is gonna have a health issue and suddenly be gone. I mean, we saw Ruth Bader Ginsburg. When you get into your seventies — and, you know, we hate that it happens — Antonin Scalia, these are situations that happen where nobody really foresees them. And then suddenly one of these guys or girls is gone. We’ve got Clarence Thomas is over 70. You’ve got, I believe, Alito over 70 now, if I’m not mistaken.

The ability to put somebody on the Supreme Court over the next two years is going to turn on what the Senate looks like. And I think a lot of Republicans, they’re out there, they know how bad the approval ratings are for Joe Biden, and there’s been a sense of acceptance going on, Buck, where people just say, “Hey, you know what? We got this; we don’t need to worry about it.” No, no, no. This is right now the Republicans are the underdogs in the Senate.

BUCK: Joe Biden is underwater; his polls are bad. We’ve been talking about that a lot. But the candidate in the race really does matter. And that’s true on our side, and it’s true on the Democrat side. And, you know, Mark Kelly, for example, Blake Masters is an impressive guy. Mark Kelly is combatant. He’s a former astronaut. He’s gonna say the right things. I mean, I’m just saying, it’s not gonna be a walk in the park, right?

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: If you look at Fetterman up in Pennsylvania, we’re gonna have Dr. Oz on the show later this week —

CLAY: Fetterman is a complete clown, but he’s got the establishment behind him.

BUCK: He’s got the entire Democrat machine behind him, and he presents as this everyman blue-collar guy. He sort of looks like a guy who’s working next to you at the steel mill, which is in some parts of Pennsylvania applause really well. In reality, mommy and daddy were paying his bills into his forties.

CLAY: He hasn’t had a job in his thirties and forties.

BUCK: In reality, he’s a trust funder, but his whole, “Hey, I wear hoodies and I’m like just like you.” But of course, he also is in favor of women competing on men’s sports teams —

CLAY: Yep.

BUCK: — and he says that fracking is a stain on the state of Pennsylvania. He’s a left-wing guy. But if we don’t run the right campaign… Look, we shouldn’t have lost two Senate seats in Georgia.

CLAY: That’s right.

BUCK: That was… I remember right after the whole Trump thing and the election and everyone was all upset, “Guys, we gotta look at these two Senate seats in Georgia and jot get at least one.” The fact that the GOP couldn’t pull that off with the candidates we had then was a huge miss.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: A huge miss. Because you see the damage that’s being done right now.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: For all of our talk… For a year now, Biden’s been trying to get through some agenda, huge spending agenda, and all they did was pare it back a little bit. But essentially, they got a lot of what they wanted out of this one. It’s just different dollar figures. And they’ll push for more if they can get away with it. So, man, these kids have gotta really make a lot of noise.

We’re gonna have Herschel on the third hour today, Herschel Walker in Georgia. Critical. Warnock is doing well there. We are Team Reality here, right, Clay? We tell everybody what’s really going on, and I’ve been worried about this. Republicans, a month ago, felt unstoppable. Now it’s feeling like we got a lot of work to do on the Senate side because old man Joe Biden, Democrats aren’t voting him. They don’t care.

CLAY: And they’re not being tied to him very well yet. And, to be fair, a lot of these candidates have had a lot of money being spent against them. We’re gonna get outspent. There’s gonna be all the more money raised against Herschel Walker and against Dr. Oz and against Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt and all these guys. And Ron Johnson. In the five states that we think will decide the United States Senate. Democrats need to win three, and Republicans need to find a way to win three, right, in order to kind of upset the applecart here of the balance.

And the challenge with certainly Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is you’re defending a seat. So if you lose there, it’s even more of a shot across the bow. You’d like to win in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, but you’re not flipping one there. They’re just maintaining. We gotta maintain in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And right now, again, this is not us trying to be alarmist.

The data out there favors the Democrats to be able to hold and expand, potentially, their majority. And remember, they don’t have to… If everything stays the same, they win because they’ve still got Kamala who can break ties. And, so far, by and large, Democrats have mostly been willing to stay together. Now, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin have provided some sanity. But you just saw ’em spend almost $800 billion, and they’re hiring 87,000 IRS agents. So you can’t rely on ’em.

BUCK: It’s a little bit of a financial motte-and-bailey argument. It was, “Oh, we gotta spend $4 trillion.” Really? After you’ve already spent $2 trillion — or they say $3.5 trillion; it’s really more like $5 trillion.

CLAY: Yeah. They’ve stopped counting.

BUCK: — so high that then when they finally get through what they want, it’s, “Oh, it’s only $700 billion.” After the $2 trillion, that’s a lot. You know, a trillion here, a trillion there does start to feel like real money, you know? Yeah. It’s a real thing.

CLAY: It happens.