America First: Say No to a No-Fly Zone

BUCK: The big fight now is over whether there should be a no-fly zone, a no-fly zone over Ukraine. We knew this was coming. Been saying for days, the emotions here are going to be escalated. People are gonna be more upset as they see the civilians getting targeted, the civilians who are fleeing, the amount of devastation and atrocity that is coming.

“War is hell.” It is a truism. It is real. But should we do a no-fly zone? I feel that the answer is adamantly “no.” Here’s Senator Marco Rubio who Clay has been pointing out to me has been really all over this issue on the Ukraine foreign policy debate. Here he is saying what he views a no-fly zone as constituting.

RUBIO: A no-fly zone has become a catchphrase. I’m not sure a lot of people fully understand what that means. That means flying AWACS 24 hours a day. That means the willingness to shoot down and engage Russian airplanes in the sky. That means, frankly, you can’t put those planes up there unless you’re willing to knock out the anti-aircraft systems that the Russians have deployed — and not just in Ukraine, but in Russia and also in Belarus. So basically, a no-fly zone, people understood what it means, it means World War III. It means starting World War III.

BUCK: So can I just say he makes a very good point and then maybe he goes — people can quibble about the last part: Would it mean World War III? Would it be a limited engagement or a contained fight — and I think you can make the case either way. But this notion, Clay, of a no-fly zone, we in America are used to, because of Iraq, we’re used to thinking, “Oh, we’re just gonna fly planes over their sky and make sure no helicopters, no planes that are military in nature…”

The Russians can shoot down or planes and will. The Russians have S300, S400, and S500 surface-to-air missile systems, in the case of S500 they can go hundreds of miles and target unmanned and manned aircraft. So to stop that we’d have to actual shoot those surface-to-air missiles. What if they’re on Russian soil? ‘Cause they can fire into Ukrainian airspace. The escalation potential here is very real, and I think people need to understand what a no-fly zone would actually entail before they advocate for it.

CLAY: Senator Rubio, if you want a Twitter feed to follow, has been one of the most informative in terms of just telling you what’s going on that I have seen out there since this Ukraine invasion began. And the fear, I believe, that is out there is what is going to be a tipping point incident that leads to a more substantial engagement where other countries are involved directly other than Russia and Ukraine? And a no-fly zone seems as if that is an easy tipping point.

And Buck and I you were talking about this on Friday after we finished the show as we’re driving out to our event in Houston. There is going to be, as long as this goes on and as it continues to escalate, more and more of a drumbeat of people who are willing to argue that the United States should get involved more substantially than we are. And even some of the decisions that are being made right now.

Hey, we’re gonna give jets to Poland — get jets to Poland, I should say, and we’re going to allow Ukrainians to man those jets.” This is one of the ideas that is out there right now in terms of how to provide more arability to the Ukrainians. At some point — and look at everything that we’re doing with Russia right now, and we’re gonna get into the price of oil. IT went over $130 a barrel when it opened yesterday in Asia.

At some point, Buck, I keep waiting for Vladimir Putin to officially say the United States has declared war against us, and/or many of these NATO ally countries are declaring war against us, too, because — and we need to talk more about all the sanctions that are going on and everything else. That is a form of warfare. Now, it isn’t directly lobbing missiles at someone.

But my concern as things continue to go poorly for Vladimir Putin is that he is going to take the next step and take an escalation level that makes all of us way more dangerous. And I don’t know exactly what that’s gonna look like, but as we commit more materiel and resources and as this drags on — as it seems it may for weeks and/or months into the future — the drumbeat to demand more United States action is going to grow, and I’m concerned, at some point, Vladimir Putin is going to say, hey, that’s officially an act of war.

BUCK: There’s also the opening of what could be, what could be a pathway to ending this conflict relatively early — emphasis on “could” — with the Russians essentially laying out what their demands are. Now, I understand that the people aren’t going to like that the Russians are using — that Putin is using the leverage of an unprovoked invasion to get things that he wants.

But if it would save thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, if it would end this conflict early, it’s something that certainly should be discussed and thought about. Clay, this is the essential point. There’s so much propaganda coming out of Ukraine and there’s so much from the Russians, from the Ukrainians, from everybody. People are pushing agendas here, they want things to happen.

And one thing that we will do is sift through and try to stay as close to the truth of the situation as well as a focus on American interests. What is in the interests of the American people? That is my guiding star. That is our lodestar here. That’s where we’re gonna be pointing all the time because it will be very easy to say, “Yeah, just send in other people and let them fight and save the Ukrainians and it’ll be fine.” This is not a superhero movie.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

CLAY: Secretary of state Tony Blinken said we’ll support Poland if it wants to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Here he was discussing that issue. Let’s play cut 6.

BLINKEN: That gets a green light. In fact, we’re talking, uh, with, uh, our Polish friends, uh, right now about what we might be able to do to backfill, uh, their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to — to the Ukrainians. Uh, what can we do, how can we help to make sure, uh, that they get something to backfill the planes that they’re handing over to the Ukrainians.

We’re in very active discussions with them about that. Look. I’ve been in — in Europe for the last couple of days working closely as always with our allies and partners at NATO, uh, the European Union, uh, the G7 countries, and all of us together are continuing to take steps to increase the pressure, uh, on Russia, uh, through additional sanctions, all of which are very actively under discussion and will be implemented, uh, in the coming days, as well as taking further steps to give the Ukrainians, um, what they need to defend themselves against the Russian aggression.

CLAY: Are you as nervous as I am, Buck, that at some point as this thing continues to play out, Vladimir Putin is going to simply label an action that has been taken — and he kind of has already with some of the economic sanctions — but I feel like when it comes to providing jets, and you’re just saying, “Hey, here’s a jet.” A Ukrainian flies it but if I’m sitting around and I’m Vladimir Putin, I’m like, “Hey, you know, that it feels like an act of war.”

If you’re giving someone that big of a weapon and just letting them fly it around, literally giving them that weapon, like, why would he not — and I’m just asking this question. Why would he not try and bomb these fighter jets in Poland if he knows that they are then going to take off and fly into Ukraine and be used there? Isn’t that a rational question that you would be thinking about when this sort of situation arises?

BUCK: Of course. At some point the nondirect intervention on our side will come to a place where Vladimir Putin decides that he will escalate on his side because he has to because otherwise he’s going to start really losing. The reason why it is very likely… I wouldn’t say inevitable and I’m not there and I’m not seeing it, but it’s very likely that Russia will eventually get its way militarily in Ukraine if it stays in the fight, is because of their total dominance of the sky.

If you have total dominance of the sky, you are able to do things militarily that really hard to counter on the ground. That’s why we started to send Stinger missiles and MANPAD, man-portable air defense system, which shoulder-fired missiles for folks, that’s why we’re sending them over there. But, Clay, what would we expect Putin to do if planes started taking off with Ukrainian pilots but from Polish airfields? Would you at that point think about sending some missiles over there to destroy those airfields?

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: Yes, he would. So we need to be very clear about what we’re willing to risk and what escalation we’re willing to engage in.

CLAY: I think that’s almost a no-brainer that that’s going to end up happening. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more discussion about it.