BUCK: We have the jobs numbers, and I gotta tell you, I have been a little bit concerned about this for a while. You can consider it the political rebound effect. How much worse can something get for the Biden administration before it starts to look like it’s turning around? And timing is everything in politics. We remind you frequently here about the lockdowns, about Fauciism, the mask mandates, the vaccine mandates, the sky-high price of gas, the very high inflation rate.

All of these things that have brought the Biden poll numbers to their lowest ever level. Down into the thirties, right? Depending on the poll you look at. I’ve been concerned that at some point this is gonna have to get better for the Biden regime, meaning when you hit the basement, right, nowhere to go but somewhere in the direction of up. It’s gonna turn around. Now, I don’t think the economy is, to be clear, turning around in a structural way.

But this was, when you look at the job numbers, a strong month of jobs. We live in reality here, and this is why we have to take stock of the fact that this week has been, on a number of fronts, energizing and mobilizing for the political opposition. We absolutely cannot take our foot off the gas pedal here. It’s August. Plenty of time still for the numbers to shift in favor of the Democrats. And you have a very different reality if they hold the Senate than if we take the Senate and the House in this midterm. We’ll talk about that in a moment.

But first off, here is the announcement, the media was very excited about this today.

MICHAEL MCKEE: Oh, my!

JONATHAN FERRO: Oh, my!

MICHAEL MCKEE: As Dick Enberg would say, 528,000 jobs created or restored!

RAHEL SOLOMON: Hard to believe, but the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July!

RICK SANTELLI: It is a whopper, 528,000!

WILL CAIN: Much higher than expected, the U.S. adding 528,000 jobs last month.

CHARLES PAYNE: Much higher than consensus, it was a strong number, the best number since March.

RON INSANA: We can dispel the notion that the economy is currently in recession.

MARTY WALSH: If we were in a recession, companies would be laying people off rather than hiring them.

STEPHANIE RUHLE: If you’re trying to make the argument it’s all doom and gloom out there and we’re on a fast track to recession, you can’t.

ANDREW SORKIN: This is not your father’s recession.

JULIA CHATTERLEY: The only word I can use here is, “Wow!”

BUCK: Wow. You hear that at the end? They’re very happy about it, and there’s a bit of people taking a victory lap, too, even on the change of the definition of “recession.” You’re noticing that, right? You’re hearing people say, “Oh, well, this shows that all those efforts to switch the definition on Merriam-Webster and on Wikipedia, it was all legitimate because we’re not really in a recession.” No. Someone explain that.

If the jobs numbers are so good — and they’re just good this month, and they’ll be revised next month. But if the jobs numbers are so good, why have we had two quarters of negative GDP? And even if the jobs numbers continued to be somewhat strong going into the fall, everything is more expensive. That hurts, ’cause there are a lot of people that have jobs, and we have to think about them, too, right?

This is just one sector of the overall economy. But be prepared for this. Be prepared for the stenographers of the Biden regime. People who believe their jobs are to present the most favorable of possible narratives for this Biden White House, they’re going to go all-in on, “See? This is great. This is exactly what we need in this current moment.”

JOHN HARWOOD: Politically at this moment, this is a very good report for President Biden. First of all, we had a couple of weeks ago a silly extended debate over whether or not we were in a recession. These numbers make pretty clear we are not in a recession. You don’t add half a million jobs when in a recessionary environment. Makes it more likely that that first quarter GDP number is gonna get revised up and not be negative as it was in the initial report. But there’s nothing presidents like better than adding a lot of jobs and being able to tell Americans, “It’s a great time to go out and get a job.”

BUCK: So they’re feeling pretty good about things right now. The stenographers — the left-wing Democrat, corporate-aligned media — saying, “A-ha.” Now, first off, there’s another perspective on this, and here is, just to give you that, Peter Schiff, who is the Europe Pacific Capital CEO, he’s saying, “Oh, no, no, no. It’s actually even worse than people think it is.”

SCHIFF: The recession that we are currently in is actually a lot worse already than people think. Look at the data that came out on Friday on household debt surging to a new all-time record high, $16.15 trillion. You know, American families have taken on $2 trillion of debt just since the pandemic. But worse, the national debt has increased by $8 trillion during the same time period. American householders are responsible for paying that debt, but they’re already drowning in their own debt. Credit card debt year over year just rose by the most in 20 years, and that’s because Americans have having to put their groceries on their credit cards.

BUCK: That’s not good, folks. That’s not good. They can look at the jobs numbers, but what about everybody else? What about the debt that’s occurring? What about us the costs, the expenses that people are dealing with? This is where you say to yourself, “Well, hold on a second. Which one of these things is actually the more accurate sense of where we’re going?”

National debt increased by $8 trillion. We’re looking at long-term structural issues here and risks, structural risks in the economy. And the addition of household debt is also deeply concerning. People can’t actually pay for things. But I also understand that there is the reality of what the economy is doing, and there’s a lot of factors coming together right now — and people are going to dispute that. You feel the high prices, but they’re gonna keep pointing to that 3.5% unemployment rate.

Biden, every Democrat’s gonna say, “See? Look at how great the unemployment rate is!” Okay. So that’s underway. That’s something that we have to be prepared for. And then also, when you look at what’s happening this week alone, they completely outmaneuvered Republicans on the CHIPS Act. Republicans go, “Okay. For national defense we’re gonna go along with the Democrats on this one.”

And the Democrats say, “Don’t worry. We’re not gonna actually pass a big inflation bill.” Hold on a second. The moment Republicans go along with the CHIPS Act, Democrats come back and say, “Yeah, actually we’re gonna do that thing we said we weren’t gonna do,” and Joe Manchin leads the charge for them going, “Well, yeah, you know, I told you I wouldn’t, but now I will.” They outmaneuvered Republicans on the CHIPS Act and then the anti-inflation bill.

We’ve gotta come… We should really just call it the inflation bill, because it’s making inflation. But notice they just name it whatever they have to based on the poll testing of what the concerns that people have right now may be. But they got that lined up to go. Sinema says she’s a “yes” on it. She’s bailing out the private equity and hedge fund guys who get the carried interest loophole.

That was gonna be $15 billion of revenue. Sinema says, “No, no, no, no. Those are rich donors. I want to keep that for them.” Democrats don’t really care about paying your fair share. They just want to take a lot from you and give it to people to keep them in power. She’s a “yes,” which I knew she would be. So they get the CHIPS Bill, which is a spending bill; Republicans went along with it.

They school the Republicans on the facts of life when it comes to what happens in politics when you just go with a handshake and a smile. They pass or are in the process of passing — I believe tomorrow they’re actually gonna hold a Senate veto on it — this anti-inflation Biden bill, which is just a version of Build Back Better. And they also now have the Kansas referendum which they view as a huge victory for abortion rights — or, you know, for abortion.

Although I think that’s exaggerated, it is something that has energized the multibillion-dollar abortion industry and lobby. So now with the jobs report, I’m telling you, they’re feeling like the winds are shifting in their direction. I’m not panicking. I’m not saying that we aren’t gonna have a very strong showing in this midterm. I do think this week is a reminder that there is no celebration until the victory is complete; there is no retreat until we are victorious, and that means taking back both the House and the Senate. The House is looking good, but we want a big majority in the House, not just a little, itty-bitty majority. We want a big majority in the House. And in the Senate, it’s gonna be tough.