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Clay and Buck

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Dr. Oz Explains the Reasons He’s Running for Senate

2 Mar 2022

BUCK: Dr. Oz is with us. He is running right now in the great state of Pennsylvania for Senate. He’s a Republican candidate in that state, and you all know him from TV and being a doctor and all that good stuff. Dr. Oz, thanks for being with us.

DR. OZ: Blessed to be with you. My brothers-in-law are avid listeners, so I get to show off for them today, which is hard to do in our family.

BUCK: Well, that’s fantastic. They clearly have good taste, Doc.

DR. OZ: (laughing)

BUCK: So, tell us why… For a lot of, folks, the most basic question before they’re running for anything is the “why.” But you’re a celebrity, you’re a doctor and also, you’re a doctor who plays one on TV, too, ’cause you are one. Why are you getting involved in this?

DR. OZ: Too many days looking around at the walls and wondering, “There must have been cameras watching me.” The country’s in such a crisis and no one seems to really be addressing elements of it. And especially got bad during covid. I noticed it before, but since I knew medicine well, I could see mistakes made that were absolutely intolerable, and yet we stifled discussion. People who had better ideas were not given the opportunity to speak.

It’s one of the reasons I’ve asked for Dr. Fauci to resign. I challenge him to a debate. I think that his desire to be the one-and-only solution for everything covid has led to him helping cancel physicians, Nobel laureates, doctors, and scientists who had ideas that I think could have contributed and eased the pain of so many during covid. I also witnessed firsthand errors in how we managed the pandemic with regard to mandates where we took a meat cleaver to Americans’ civil liberties and our ability to actually be independent — and individualism should drive those individuals, not government top-down authoritarian mandates.

CLAY: Dr. Oz, appreciate you coming on with us. I’m curious what you see when you see on Monday Joe Biden walking wearing a huge mask as he crosses the White House lawn, and then last night during the State of the Union there’s basically no mask to be seen. He’s shaking hands. He’s head-butting people, believe it or not. It’s such a bastardization, I would imagine, of the science argument to have one day, a guy walking around outdoors with a mask on; the next day he’s hugging and shaking hands and everything else. How frustrating is that to see as a doctor and recognize how poor of a job, in many ways, our government has done explaining risk analysis and covid?

DR. OZ: What’s shocking to me is they, with the hypocritical tone, say, “We are following the science,” and what they’re really doing is following the political science. This is all theater. It has been theaters for quite a while. We see that when we look at red states versus blue states and their outcomes. But over the past two months, there’s been a slow easing of these mandates in blue states, especially the last few weeks because they realize people have had it.

You can only be dishonest to a certain degree and people even in your own party begin to revolt. And what we are describing is a classic example of leaders who are making Draconian decisions about what people should suffer through but not living through those same restrictions themselves. Restated: People with big backyards told people with no backyards early in the pandemic to stay indoors, and that’s exactly where the virus was.

So literally not only were these authoritarian moves harmful indirectly because they lead to depths of despair, but they were directly harmful. They didn’t help us. They actually made things worse, and you can most clearly see this with kids. What society, what self-respecting people use their children as shields? We closed our schools down and never opened them in many parts of the country for such a long period that we may have caused irreparable harm to those kids.

Yet early on I said, “Europeans, they’re keeping their schools open. They love their kids more than we love our kids? What’s going on here?” And I think those are the kinds of decisions once made, they were unwilling to backtrack on. And then evolved into this, “I believe in science maneuvering,” which is just… First of all, I believe in God, right? Science is a tool. I’m a scientist, a doctor. I use science to help save lives.

But it’s something that’s supposed to be challenged, supposed to be improved on, and we did not allow that to happen. And covid is just an example. The same maneuvering, the same approach has been going on for quite a while. I lived through it. On my show, I would take on government issues frequently and get beaten back — at least they’d try to — and I’d be a porcupine about these issues, continuing to strike back until we finally get the truth out there.

But forget about covid for a second. What’s happening in energy policy, which directly led to what’s happening in Ukraine? What’s happening in our school system where we don’t let parents at least their values get shared with the kids while, you know, teachers are indoctrinating our kids with values that don’t agree with ours. We see this at the border where you have false narratives, and the true story of a cartel-run human trafficking operation doesn’t actually reach the front pages.

These are the kinds of things that bother us. I’ll end with China, ’cause the real existential threat here is China. They’ve eaten our lunch, take advantage of us, steal from us, they cheated everything and they’re watching he Putin very carefully. And Xi is saying, “I can’t believe Putin got away with this much already.” As horrible as it is, he’s thinking, “Maybe I’ll do the same thing with Taiwan,” 10% of the world’s semiconductors, 80% of the high-quality ones, all of this is at risk.

BUCK: We’re speaking to Mehmet Cengiz Oz — Dr. Oz, I hope I got that almost correct.

DR. OZ: (chuckles)

BUCK: Dr. Oz, as you all know him from TV. He’s a surgeon, health care advocate, and running for Senate in Pennsylvania. He’s in the Republican primary right now. So with that in mind, Dr. Oz, how would you describe your political philosophy? Are you a conservative? Have you always been? Are you a more recent convert? What should people know about what your core, what your foundation of politics is?

DR. OZ: I’m a conservative Republican, always have been. When I was 8 years of age, my father — who was an immigrant who came here legally because the United States was recruiting physicians — told me we were Republicans. I asked him why, and he said, “Because they have better ideas. The realities of life are Republican.” So my first election was 1980 for Ronald Reagan, who I voted for, and I’m proud to have voted for Republicans and have believed the Republican Party represents what conservative thought could be.

Not all Republicans are conservative, but I am, and I feel strongly that the issues that galvanize me — I’m pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, in a big way every law-abiding American citizen ought to be own the firearm of their choice. These are all issues that are important here in Pennsylvania, and if you take it to the next step, what I really want to do is protect my children and your children. It’s one of the reasons I decided to close the show.

By the way, I burned the boats right? When you go into politics, you’re hosting a syndicated network television show, you’re not allowed to air that show because it’s unfair, ’cause you’re everywhere, and so I shut the show down, shut the magazine down, did all the things that I thought was right because I feel so passionately about this. And as a conservative, I know that some of the mistakes we’ve made are affecting our kids in ways that will be more difficult to improve, because if the kids are taught to be Marxists, then they’re not gonna understand the very foundations of what conservatism represents.

CLAY: You mentioned that show. I’m kind of curious about this. How much money did you walk away from? I like the “burn the boats” analogy. How much money did you walk away from to run for political office, where obviously — unless you’re Joe Biden’s family — you don’t typically get super wealthy from it already? But you had to have a highly successful show. I’m just really intrigued by a decision like that because you’re turning away probably tens of millions of dollars to be able to run for a political office.

DR. OZ: That’s the exact amount I walked away from, and I’ve been blessed (crosstalk)

CLAY: Yeah. That’s a really interesting discussion, right? Because there’s a lot of people out there you were saying, “Hey, I could make tens of millions of dollars, but I care so much about these issues that I’m willing to walk away from that money.”

DR. OZ: You know how deflating it is to sit in your safe little studio, air-conditioning, lots of people pampering you — or in the operating room ’cause I still take care of patients and, you know, it’s pretty safe there if you’re not the patient (chuckles) — and witness your country falling apart? What’s the point of making a couple extra euros of money, when what has allowed my family to thrive and prosper — which is the generosity, wisdom, and strength of America — is being torn down, torn asunder, ’cause people feel we are so irredeemably stained that the only way to fix us is to break us asunder into little pieces and then rebuild us with their toxic ideology.

And I refuse to stand by and watch that happen. And it’s okay if it doesn’t work out. You know, when hopefully years from now — I try to live a healthy lifestyle even (chuckles) even on the campaign trail, diner food. Years from now when I pass away, on my headstone I want it to read “heart surgeon, TV host.” If it happens to say “senator,” that’s great too. I don’t intend to go there and live in Washington the rest of my life. I’m trying to do an intervention to help. (crosstalk)

BUCK: Dr. Oz, I should have probably asked you at the top, given the news cycle right now, if you had a chance to watch some or all of the State of the Union address and what your feeling is — as somebody who wants to get into this fight — about the current White House and the regime that’s been calling the shots the last year or so?

DR. OZ: I was not impressed by the State of the Union. Of course, I watched it. I watched the Republican response as well. It’s disappointing that Joe Biden painted a vastly different picture of his first year in office than the disaster being experienced by the vast majority of Americans. I do these big town halls here in Pennsylvania, and no one here thinks that’s what’s going on. We’re worried about the record inflation we’re experiencing.

Gas prices, obviously, an eight-year high. I did a TikTok video, by the way, on gas prices that got two million views almost immediately. TikTok took it down, which, again, is part of censoring that bothers me so much. I put it back up again ’cause I got 13 million people so I went and said, “Why are they taking it down?” Now it has seven and a half million views. Why would I not be able to mention the reality of what the average American is suffering through right now?

And these are issues that are addressable. Our energy policy makes zero sense. If you — especially if you look at the Ukraine. We should be… Joe Biden yesterday in the State of the Union should have designated key oil and gas projects in our country to be critical infrastructure, for national security. And they’re gonna do everything to protect those efforts ’cause right now no one’s gonna get the natural gas out from under my feet in Pennsylvania, although we could power the whole country for a century and ship it to our European allies to free them from the yoke of Russia.

CLAY: Dr. Oz, do you think that Oprah would vote for you if she were living in Pennsylvania?

DR. OZ: I don’t know. She’s, uh… You know, I talked to before I ran just to inform her. I asked her not to get involved ’cause it’s the right thing to do and she agreed. So I have no idea. I think she’d have to, like everybody else in Pennsylvania, weigh what I’m saying, compare it to everybody else, and make the best choice of her ability. But one thing I’m sure is that she would vote.

CLAY: The other thing I was gonna say about that is you came… We talked a little bit about you coming out of the television studio and running for political office. You’re a beloved guy. When you’re the doctor who’s trying to get everybody to be healthy… I mentioned Oprah. You have a great relationship with them. You mentioned the millions of followers you have.

And then you step into a fray where people start throwing punches at you. How much did I ever say does that feel than what you were doing beforehand where you’re sort of a nonideological doctor figure who everybody kind of responds to in a favorable way, and then you step in and you start taking slings and arrows, so to speak? How has that been an adjustment for you?

DR. OZ: It’s gonna surprise you. It’s a very cathartic process. You don’t have to pretend and refrain from saying things because you know people are gonna get all upset about it. You can say exactly what you’re thinking, ’cause people are gonna vote based on that and you are the person you are. So for me, it’s been incredibly freeing. I love my show. I love talking about health.

But when I got frustrated about, for example, what Fauci was doing leading our public health response, I tried to say things but after a while people, they don’t want you saying those things. And you’ve got incredible pressures to make sure you stay within a little cordoned limit, which is why I know what it’s like to corporate America right now. They don’t want to get involved.

I’m here to say, “You have to get involved. Be a patriot. Stand up for what you know is right. Say what you see.” At these town halls, that’s my one plea. You know, I think you’d vote for me if you can and listened, ’cause if you heard me speak, you’d want to be part of our campaign effort. But no matter what, just say what you’re seeing, because if you don’t and no one else does, we’re gonna believe all this woke ideology that’s suffocating our brains.

BUCK: DrOz.com. Dr. Oz is running for the Senate, folks, in Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz, appreciate it, sir. Thanks so much.

DR. OZ: Thanks for making me a hero to my brothers-in-law. God bless you.

BUCK: (chuckling)

CLAY: Thank ’em for listening for us. Thank you.

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“Wow” Moment: The Veep Explains Ukraine

2 Mar 2022

BUCK: Kamala Harris is the vice president, and she’s had some real moments in the last year or so. I think, Clay, before we go to this one ’cause this may be your number one, what is your, so far, favorite Kamala Veep moment? Do you have one that comes to mind?

CLAY: The clip that we’re about to play I think may be my favorite. The looking at the moon video that she did with the kids was pretty insanely awkward.

BUCK: Yes! (laughing) The kids that were actors who were paid?

CLAY: Yes, paid actors.

BUCK: My favorite one was so far, although this is getting up there. This might be the number one that we’re about to play for you.

CLAY: I think this my favorite, we’re about to play.

BUCK: My favorite was when she looked at Lester Holt, like, “We’ve been to the border. Listen, madam, vice president, you haven’t been to the border.” “You can’t do that. I have to pretend to care about the truth here, somewhat.” Here is the latest. Kamala was asked on a radio show to please explain the conflict in Ukraine, and I want all of you to listen in ’cause, oh, she explains it.

BUCK: Yeah. There you go, Clay.

CLAY: If you teach kindergarten — I have a first grader — I would not be that dumb in the way that I was talking to him, and I haven’t been, to explain what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine. But to me this is indicative of Kamala Harris’ inability, one, to be a decent communicator. But, two, her belief that everyone in America is an imbecile.

Because “layman’s terms” doesn’t mean talk to me as if I have an IQ of eight. It means talk to me in a way that can make sense of why it matters, and I don’t know… How many people in America don’t understand that Russia and Ukraine are different countries and that they neighbor each other? Is that really how far back we have to go to explain this situation?

BUCK: Also Kamala’s only going to speak about it in layman’s terms because she’s not even remotely a foreign policy expert. So just ask her to explain it you’re gonna get a pretty baseline, but she decided to go even below the standard baseline —

CLAY: We’ve got a lot of elementary school teachers, I bet, who either in the past or currently listening, I guarantee you that even they are, like, “Man, that’s a level of dumb, dumbing down a complex story,” which you have to do for young kids that even they would say, “Yeah, that’s a little bit too much for even young kid audience.”

BUCK: Last time I checked — we have to go back and look at this — when we did our who’s more likable, Kamala or Hillary poll, when you put that out on Twitter, I saw that about 50-50.

CLAY: It finished dead even 50-50. Like, 50,000 people voted, and 50% said Kamala, 50% said Hillary, which makes it a perfect poll questions because anytime you think of a poll question that can end up 50-50, that is the perfect debate topic.

BUCK: It was remarkable to see how people really were flummoxed. They couldn’t come… Usually you have a debate, a poll question and people are very strongly on one side. A lot of people said, “Ah, if I have to pick, I guess, I don’t know,” kind of a coin-flip attitude to the whole thing. And here’s Kamala Harris on whether they, the Democrats, can course correct for the midterms. Play it.

BUCK: Oh, okay. So now they’re gonna appeal to bipartisanship? Come on, Clay. Unity? Joe Biden is the unity president again? I’m gonna hurl.

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Where in the World Is Tiny Fauci?

2 Mar 2022

BUCK: I’ve got a question for all of you, and that is: Where is tiny Fauci? Is he hiding in a drawer somewhere at the CDC? Has he fallen into a thimble and is now yelling out that everyone still (impression) “needs to be masking up? Why aren’t you all wearing masks?”

CLAY: (laughing)

BUCK: I’m just wondering how it’s possible that suddenly they announce this for the State of the Union that all these mask mandates are going away, and little Fauci, the mask fundamentalist, disappears somewhere. I know he’s easy to lose in a crowd, but where did he go, Clay?

CLAY: He’s been on every media outlet except this one for basically two straight years. He’ll go talk to anybody’s podcast. This guy is the number-one guest. He was on basically every morning show, it feels like, for the last two years. You haven’t been able to escape him. Every time I look up, he’s on CNN or MSNBC telling you about how you’re all gonna die and how important it is for you to go get your eighth booster.

And all of a sudden, in what is fairly significant CDC activity, starting on Friday ending masking, and the effectively last night State of the Union, nobody’s wearing a mask… Every state even now including Hawaii, California, Washington, and Oregon, states that have lost their minds — New York, New York City, all these places — doing away with their mask mandates.

I saw where Philadelphia is letting their kids now not have to wear masks anymore. All these places, and Fauci isn’t to be heard from at all. And again, I don’t know who ordered the Code Red. I don’t know who in the Biden White House walked in and said, “Guys, our polling numbers are absolutely atrocious,” but somebody did, and that Code Red got ordered, and they basically kicked Fauci right out of any media appearances, and they since then have totally pivoted in every direction, Buck.

It is like light switch-like. You know, you’re sitting in darkness and then they suddenly flip the light on and they are pretending, “Oh, yeah, well, the science changed,” but it didn’t. They just recognized that they were getting crushed, and they’re every day, and they’re running scared, and they changed everything overnight.

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Biden Suddenly Pretends He Cares About the Border

2 Mar 2022

CLAY: I’m sure that there were many things that stunned a lot of you who watched the State of the Union address. But Joe Biden suddenly coming out in favor of border security was one of the more jaw-dropping — nowhere near as much as jaw-dropping as Buck not finishing a bracket, but one of the more jaw-dropping — revelations of the State of the Union. Listen to this.

BUCK: You know who doesn’t support “immigration reform” (and by that they always mean amnesty)? The American people by solid majority whenever polled they do not support amnesty for illegal immigrants, certainly not in advance of a truly secure border and a willingness to enforce the law in the interior of the U.S., not just at the border. That’s one of the biggest places the Biden administration has broken down on this and purposefully so.

The nonenforcement in the U.S. interior, they are literally, we all know, flying people to New York, Chicago, other places across the country from the U.S.-Mexico border. Illegal immigrants are being flown, taxpayers on the hook for this, all over the country. So, every state effectively becomes a border state in that situation. They do not enforce in the U.S. interior. You had 1.6, 1.7 million known — they keep calling them “encounters,” Clay.

That’s a nice way of saying illegal crossings because if you show up at the Tijuana-San Diego border with a passport saying, “I want to come into America at the appropriate border station, that’s not an encounter,” they’re not counting those. They’re counting people that are coming into the country illegally. Biden speaking about securing the border is the arsonist claiming to be a firefighter. This is outrageous. This is absurd. This administration is openly, in the policies they pursue, open borders.

CLAY: Well, this is, Buck — if you look at the data and trust the polling — basically the weakest point for all Democrats, which is why when I watched the State of the Union last night, I felt like Biden was making a calculated attempt to repudiate the left wing of his party. Now, I don’t buy it. You don’t buy it. I imagine most of our listeners do not. But when he came out and he said that he wanted to fund police, not to defund the police?

When he tried to argue that covid isn’t a partisan issue — even though, by the way, he’s made it a total partisan issue? And this maybe surprised me the most, Buck, in addition to saying he was gonna secure the border, you know what he didn’t mention even one time? January 6th. He’s back on Capitol Hill. What have the Democrats spent a year focusing on obsessively? January 6th, “the threat to our democracy.”

Biden himself has made many speeches about this. He didn’t even mention it. Why was that? I think because the polling on January 6th is not good. Most regular people out there are like, “Yeah, you know what? It was a riot. We had an entire year of riots from 2020 the summer all the way up through the election,” and we wish riots didn’t happen, whether you’re Democrat, Republican, or an independent, but Democrats have wildly overplayed their hand in trying to argue this was an insurrection and the country was actually threatened by what happened on that day.

BUCK: That’s true, and it’s also true that Trump is not — we know this for sure — going to be on the ballot in the midterms.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: And we were thinking about independents, if you’re thinking about who is gonna show up and vote, people can figure out that when you’re the party in power — you have a majority in the House, you have a de facto majority in the Senate, you question the White House/President Biden. When you’re trying to make it about someone who no longer holds elective office nor is running, it’s pathetic. It’s too obvious. So at least for the midterms…

If Trump runs again obviously you’re gonna see a lot of January 6th talk from the Democrats. But going in to what are elections determining Congress, Senate obviously also a lot of state-level elections too, to focus on the insurrection and Trumpism is just effectively, for anyone who can see, who can read between the lines a little bit, is just an admission that the Democrats are not doing a good job and have no real plan or policies to speak of. It’s just, “What about Trump?” “What about Trump?” when he’s not even running, doesn’t even work so well.

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Clay Floored! Buck Never Filled Out a March Madness Bracket

2 Mar 2022

CLAY: We’ve moved into the month of March. Buck, when’s the last time you filled out a bracket for the NCAA Tournament?

BUCK: I’ve never —

CLAY: You know what I’m talking about?

BUCK: I’ve never filled out a bracket for it.

CLAY: You never filled out an NCAA tournament bracket?

BUCK: No. No.

CLAY: Not even when you were a kid.

BUCK: No.

CLAY: (long pause) It’s rare that my… I wish there was video of my jaw just dropping like this. I would bet 97%, 98% of our audience has filled out an NCAA tournament bracket at some point. Even if it’s just, “Hey, here’s the $10, you know, here’s a bracket, go fill it out,” $10 challenge at your place of work, maybe when you were a kid in school. I know when I was a kid, teachers, we used to fill out the brackets and if you won you got like a pizza gift certificate or something. I am legitimately in disbelief that you’ve never filled out an NCAA bracket.

BUCK: I mean, I think it’s just not as common in the Northeast ’cause we don’t have a huge NCAA March Madness.

CLAY: I’m not gonna let you get away… I went to school in the Northeast. Every kid I knew was doing bracket challenges.

BUCK: You went to school in the Mid-Atlantic, sir!

CLAY: I went to George Washington, people who don’t know, it’s all northeastern kids. It’s all Long Island kids, all Philly kids. Yes, they have, like, geographic diversity now a little bit more. But it’s a very Northeastern school.

BUCK: This will not be news to the audience that Buck is a strange duck; so here we go.

CLAY: (laughing) I just… I — I — I am in dis… Where’s Ali? Has everybody else on the show… Surely even Ali —

BUCK: Oh, we got… I got both of our producers here in New York, Mojo and Mike. I’m sure producer Mark, who loves sports, has probably filled out brackets every year since he could write.

CLAY: My kids fill out brackets!

BUCK: But both or producers here, they’ve never filled it out.

CLAY: What!

BUCK: Both of them never filled it out, they just told me right now, right here, Mojo and Mike, no brackets.

CLAY: I am… (sputtering) The reason I was just bringing this up is because we’re now into March and March madness is basically the unifying symbol of excellence for everywhere but this studio, evidently, where a majority of people have never filled out brackets. Here’s what I want you to do. If you are as stunned by this revelation as I am, just tag @BuckSexton, @ClayTravis on Twitter, and let me know because I feel like I’m in disbelief. I — I can’t even conceptualize. My kids, my 7-year-old, has already filled out a bracket.

BUCK: Their dad did found a sports network, to be fair.

CLAY: (laughs) Sports media company. True. They’re probably in the high-end percentile for sports knowledge based on young kids. But… All right. So we’re gonna have to come back to this.

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Phenomenal! DeSantis Tells Kids They Can Take Off Masks

2 Mar 2022

CLAY: Buck and I are gonna be down in the state of Texas tomorrow. But we have been, both of us, a lot of time in the state of Florida. Ron DeSantis, obviously, running for reelection, and he was showing up for an event at USF, University of South Florida, down in the Tampa area, and there were kids waiting behind him who were wearing masks, and this is not even as the event is beginning. This is as Ron DeSantis is walking up off the mic, talking to the kids all with masks on behind him. Listen to this.

BUCK: This is the exactly correct attitude to mask wearing now: “Take the dumb masks off.” Kids, adults, seniors, everybody, take ’em off. If you insist on wearing them, it’s one thing. Clay, we’re going down to Houston. You know, I’ve never been to Houston before.

CLAY: Great town. I think you’re gonna have a good time.

BUCK: Spent a lot of time in Dallas and when I tell Houstonians that, they’re like —

CLAY: There’s a big rivalry. Big rivalry between Houston and Dallas.

BUCK: “Why don’t you come to the best city in Texas instead of…?” and I’m like, “Look, I don’t even…” You know, I’ll see. We’ll see who has the best barbecue. We’ll see about this rodeo this weekend. So but, anyway, the reality here is you have people… I’m gonna be on a plane. You’re gonna be on a plane, too. We’re gonna be masking up on that plane.

CLAY: Unfortunately.

BUCK: Not a single person on the planet would win a debate with me or you about how stupid it is to mask up on planes. Not one. Because it is demonstrably idiotic.

CLAY: Well, I think it’s also demonstrably an incredibly difficult argument to even make if you watched the State of the Union last night. Even Democrats inside of an enclosed building — even old Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden, who are by far under the greatest risk from covid — were not wearing masks. So how can you have watched last night’s State of the Union and in any way argue that you need to have a mask on for an airplane flight?

There’s no argument at all, and I wished that Joe Biden was going to make that announcement last night. If he had wanted to actually make news — he didn’t really make any news with any of the pronouncements from his State of the Union address — he could have said, “Hey, and I’m telling the CDC that it’s time to go do away with the mask mandate.” I don’t know, when is it up again, like March 15th or March 18th or something, I believe, if I’m not mistaken? I don’t know how they can justify extending it at this point in time when all 50 states — even Hawaii has now done away with their mask requirements to enter that island state.

BUCK: Masking is pure political tribalism at this point, folks, and hysteria based.

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Texas Primary Sets Up Beto-Abbott Governor’s Race

2 Mar 2022

CLAY: The Texas primaries for Republicans and Democrats happened yesterday, first primary of the 2022 calendar year, and we are officially lined up for Greg Abbott against Beto. There are gonna be some runoffs in other different races, and that’s gonna be fascinating to look as those numbers come out and we see how much of a continued shift the Hispanic vote has moved in the direction of Republicans.

Because some of the early turnout numbers I saw from down particularly south along the border in Texas, Republicans were continuing to make monster gains. Remember that was one of the areas that flipped the most in the 2020 calendar election in terms of from Hillary Clinton in ’16 to Donald Trump in ’20. Pretty extraordinary to see there.

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Are We Willing to Sanction Russian Energy or Just Wear Ukrainian Flag Pins?

2 Mar 2022

BUCK: Clay, part of last night’s State of the Union address, I think, analysis of it has to be whether we’re looking at the situation in Ukraine, how much of the Biden administration’s posturing up to this point is driven by principles and human rights concerns, and how much of the decision-making is really being pushed by the fact that we have a high energy prices already in this country.

It’s easier to talk tough on this than it is to take… Even I’m talking purely economic front right now, for everybody. We’re not even discussing for the time being — we will, but we’re not even discussing in this moment of — military action on behalf of the Ukrainians against the Russians. I think there’s still enough of an understanding that that is going near absolute catastrophe, that is going right up to the edge of the abyss.

So here, for example, when Biden was talking about all of this last night, Clay, it seems to me that there’s a recognition that the American people will not go all the way on this issue, and that’s why you’ve got a high chance, I’d say — a high chance — that we try to stay where we are for some period of time here. We try to stay at this level of involvement. What do you think, though, would turn the corner on this? What would change the sense of what Biden and the administration are willing to do from a U.S. perspective in Ukraine?

CLAY: I think the challenge that is so profound here is we have allowed Russian oil and gas industries to become so incredibly powerful. I was reading this morning in the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and don’t miss what’s going on here. As there has become this climate sensitivity, this Green New Deal, this “America and the world is gonna cease to exist because of global warming,” there has been a decision to downgrade our own production of oil and gas.

The same thing has happened simultaneously in Europe. And don’t mistake what’s occurring when that happens. Oil and gas demand is not disappearing. When we decide to ratchet back our production of oil and gas, we are allowing Vladimir Putins of the world, the Mideast authoritarians of the world to have more power. So this, to me, is a calculated example of how our misguided, in my opinion, focus on global warming and climate change and everything else is destroying our ability to create energy independence for ourselves.

And the absence of us producing that oil and gas, that energy production, allows these autocrats, these communist dictators — these people who are, frankly, not in alliance with American values or in global democracy — to rise up and grab more power. And that’s the underlying story here, Buck. And the reality is, are we willing — and I think it’s such an interesting question.

Are we willing to bear the increased cost of actually sanctioning Russia such that their oil and gas is not distributed to Europe and it’s not distributed to the United States, and we might have pay — let’s be honest — a dollar or more a gallon for gas? That’s the reality. Or are we going to say, “Oh, we’re happy going in one foot instead of both feet into this sanction world.”

BUCK: He’s Representative Steve Scalise saying that Biden needs to stop financing Putin’s war.

CLAY: Yeah.

SCALISE: President Biden needs to stop financing Putin’s war with Russian oil because he shut off the spigots of American energy. Its having devastating impacts on the peoples of Ukraine, but it’s putting billions of dollars in Putin’s pocket. Think about the number again: $700 million a day between the United States, European Union, and U.K. are going to Russia, every single day. President Biden, these failed energy policies are having devastating impacts on Americans but also on the people of Ukraine because those policies are financing the war.

BUCK: Climate change ideology comes with very high costs, and I don’t even just mean the financial costs of driving up the price of energy and making it more difficult to get leases on federal land and shutting down pipelines. We know about that. We have to keep hammering it. But also, Clay, when you think about it, to the point you were just making, what are some of the countries in the world that are the worst actors on a global scale?

They’re often countries that have been, essentially, economically one-trick ponies, right? Russia is the biggest one that comes to mind. Saudi Arabia got away with a lot for a long time because of its oil reserves and still does to this day. Venezuela obviously was funding its insane… Venezuela ran an experiment: “If we have a lot of free money in the ground and we take a more Marxist approach, can we ruin an economy that’s basically sitting on a giant ATM machine?”

The answer is: Yes. Socialism can even ruin that. Largest proven oil reserves in the world is actually Venezuela, not Saudi Arabia. So keep that in mind when you see that people are on the, quote, “Maduro Diet” there of essentially slow starvation because they can’t get food. We know that a lot of the bad actors on the world stage rely on fossil fuels to prop up their regime, to pay for their militaries.

So when gas prices are high, those places become more belligerent. They become more willing to take risks, including what we’re seeing right now in Russia. And even if you want to be somebody who thinks, “Oh, climate change we will have to take this more seriously,” the only adult way to try to limit CO2 emissions in a meaningful way is nuclear power, which European countries, particularly France, are ahead of the U.S. on because they haven’t had some of the same environmentalist wackos calling the shots over there that they have here.

But nuclear power. It’s not windmills. Not only is the climate catastrophe theory, I think, just wrong on the merits, and in 10 years they’ll be saying, “Oh, we only have 10 years,” and then 10 years after that, “Oh…” We know. We’ve done this before. Go back and watch the Al Gore movie, An Inconvenient Truth. But that aside. If they were serious about it, we’d be talking about nuclear, and these decisions have massive national security implications for us and all over the world.

CLAY: No doubt, and the fact that we’re not willing to have those conversations in a detailed fashion — oh, it’s great for you to change your social media profile picture to the Ukrainian flag — but ultimately there are hard choices that are required, and you have to balance what you may want to do if you are a Democrat when it comes to the Green New Deal and it comes to climate change and energy spending and the reality that those choices that we make in this country and that Europe is making are enabling and empowering places like Russia.

And if we’re not willing to cut off the oil and gas spigot from Russia, then, frankly, we aren’t going to be able to destroy the economy of Russia. We’re just not because they’re still going to be bringing in at least half of their overall resources in that respect.

BUCK: And just keep in mind, they’re assuming… For everyone out there, they’re assuming that all the economic actions we’ve taken against them… Look, haven’t normalized relations with Iran since 1979, right? We haven’t had diplomatic relations with Iran for decades now. The Russians are assuming that when this is done, that will be normal diplomatic relations, just because of how important their energy and just geographically and from a national security perspective. The Russians think they’re too big to isolate over the long term.

CLAY: Too big to fail. They’re too big to be shut down.

BUCK: And so in the short term, they’re willing to take a lot of pain — and when I say “they,” I’m talking about the Russian leadership, not the Russian people who clearly are gonna suffer a lot from all of this and with no actual say in the discussion. To that end, we should talk a little bit about some of these efforts to take action against Russians in weird ways all over the world, people pouring out their vodka and this stuff.

I remember the “freedom fries” moment in 2003 where we weren’t supposed to say “french fries,” and that was just ’cause the French premier was not willing — what was it, Chirac, Jacques Chirac, was not willing — to go along with us in the “coalition of the willing.” So now we’re supposed to be calling them “freedom fries.” There are people who are actually boycotting French restaurants in New York City — this actually happened — only to find out it that was owned by an American and they just were serving French cuisine.

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: So we’ve gotta also maintain a degree of seriousness about actions that are gonna be taken here in the homeland with regard to the situation in Ukraine. I saw a lot of flag pins and such last night at the State of the Union. That’s fine, but a Ukrainian flag pin and no U.S. flag pin, member of Congress? I think that’s… People might say, “Hmm.”

CLAY: How about, do you think people would wear Taiwan flags if China invaded?

BUCK: Even better question. No, I don’t, actually. I think a lot of people would be too scared to do that among our elites and among the apparatus in this country.

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The Zelensky vs. Putin Narrative

2 Mar 2022

CLAY: So, Buck, as we went to break there, I was talking about, to a large extent, the Russia-versus-Ukraine battle has been distilled down to Zelensky against Putin, right? Zelensky is the upstart underdog hero of democracy, as it were, in the way that this story is being conveyed. And Putin is the archangel of modern-day death and autocracy and certainly is being compared to Adolf Hitler in many stretches of the world.

Okay. So the question that is out there is how does this resolve itself as it pertains to Zelensky? Because the truth of the matter is this: As long as Zelensky is alive then there is a tremendous heartbeat of democracy that will continue with him. But if Russia is able to get him and kill him — it’s crude, but this is the reality — then that heartbeat of democracy is potentially challenged.

Now, simultaneously, however, if Zelensky is captured and killed, then he becomes a martyr, and there is an argument that he might become even more powerful for the Ukrainian people in death than he did in life — and, certainly, it will mobilize even more anger Vladimir Putin in the nation and in the world as a whole because many of us are seeing Zelensky as the personification of the Ukrainian resistance. So, Buck, how does this play out as it pertains, in your mind, to Zelensky himself? Is it smarter for him to flee and keep his life even as Ukraine falls? Is it better for him to stay there and fight to the bitter end? And how does Russia handle it? This is a big part of the story.

BUCK: It’s better for Ukraine, for the resistance against this Russian aggression, for him to stay. I think that is pretty clear. It’s obviously much higher risk for Zelensky personally, and this is a fascinating question because you could see both sides of this — and I think that’s so important too. There’s a lot of people that are running around analyzing this guy stateside projecting certainty, and I’m telling you right now: I was analyzing two wars for years. People who tell you they’re certain tend to be wrong a lot. And on this issue of Putin and his mind-set, on the one hand you know that there was the poisoning, as we mentioned, of I believe it was Victor Yushchenko —

CLAY: Yes.

BUCK: — the Ukrainian premier, what, over a decade ago now with dioxin which is why you see his horribly scarred his face. He looked like a different person afterwards. That was meant to send a message: This is how the Russians do things. Same thing with the polonium poisoning of the Russian defector in the U.K., put radioactive isotopes inside him to erode him from the inside out. It’s horrible.

They do this to send a message. So that’s extreme cruelty on display from the Russians but with a degree of plausible deniability. Whether we think it’s plausible or not, they’ll say, “Oh, that wasn’t us!” In the case of the poisoning, for example, that would be the Russian external intelligence operations of the SVR. The SSB is the domestic service. Think of it more like their version of the FBI on steroids.

The SVR is more like their version of the CIA. Same thing in the U.K. There’s MI5 for domestic intelligence, MI6 for external foreign intelligence. So they had some level of plausible deniability. If they kill Zelensky, everybody knows that they had killed Zelensky, which brings my other point, Clay, which I think you’re getting to: What does this mean in the long term?

The Russians want what they want in Ukraine while also being able to reenter, sure, as a state that a lot of people view negatively but the Russian government is gonna be at the U.N. and going forward at some point go back into the international community, whether people like it or not. They’re not going to accept being a total pariah state like, say, North Korea. Now, their energy reserves is why that’s a lot harder.

I do think, though, there’s a line at which Putin realizes if you’re assassinating, effectively, a foreign head of state, people are gonna remember that. If you’re killing large numbers of Ukrainian civilians, people are going to remember that past even the duration of the conflict. So I don’t have a clear answer other than I think there are conflicting forces here, that Putin is vicious in a way we’ve all seen on the world stage before and is now, but also he doesn’t want to be turned into Khadafy, as we know.

CLAY: There’s so many different directions this can go, Buck, and I think what you said is people who claim that they know certainty or have certitude as to how this plays out are missing so many of the different objectives at play — and so many, frankly, of the fine lines between the direction this can head. But I think Zelensky has become the focal point for many people all around the world as the personification of the battle that Ukraine is waging.

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What’s Happening in Ukraine and What Might Come Next

2 Mar 2022

BUCK: So the situation in Ukraine is as follows. You have over 870,000 Ukrainians reportedly have fled the country. The Russian military convoy is continuing to snake its way toward Kiev, the capital city. There are very heightened concerns about a siege of the capital as well as the escalation of Russian strikes that are hitting civilian targets. And there’s even accusations already that the Russians are specifically, in some cases, targeting civilian areas and going after not just critical infrastructure and military but other civilian targets of opportunity as they see it.

We have been wondering when we’re gonna get an official Russian Ministry of Defense update on casualties. Clay, over the weekend, the numbers we were seeing were in the neighborhood of between three and 4,000 Russians killed. That seems too high, to me. There’s no way the Russian military would be able to sustain three or four thousand dead a week for the duration of a conflict that could likely go on for months here.

They could handle it by numbers but not politically at home. Putin would… That’s far too many. They lost 15,000 in a decade in Afghanistan, by way of comparison, and we know what a disaster that was for the Soviets. The Russian defense ministry has said 498 of its soldiers have been killed in Ukraine with almost 1600 wounded. Those numbers do seem pretty close. Those are pretty… Now, look, they may be underplaying it, to be sure.

But, I mean, yeah, when you’re talking about 1600 casualties, all-in when you’re talking killed and wounded as well — killed and wounded together — 2,000 in a week, that then does correspond with what we’ve seen, which is a lot of footage of these convoys, armored personnel carriers, tanks being hit by Ukrainian resistance. And those Javelin anti-tank missiles and the other armaments that have been sent to Ukraine in recent years…

Notably, I would add, by the Trump administration over the objections of previous Obama administration officials, they’re certainly causing serious problems for the Russians. Clay, here’s the big question we’ve got. We don’t know which way this is going right now. Is Putin losing fast enough and heavily enough that maybe he is rethinking, or are we still in the early phase of a conflict that is just about to ramp up dramatically and therefore the Ukrainian casualties will get much higher and Putin is in this for the long run no matter what the costs, it looks like, in this early stage?

I’m hearing people go back and forth on this. Obviously tremendously different outcomes, depending on which one of those is the likelier scenario. And I’ve gotta say, I tend to think that the Russians have been underestimated up to this point in terms of their dedication to the conquest of at least eastern Ukraine. That’s my sense. But the Ukrainians are clearly putting up a really serious fight. I mean, over 2,000 casualties for the Russians. That’s a lot.

CLAY: No doubt. And if the Russians are admitting that, it’s probably likely that that’s the low end, right? The Ukrainian number is probably the high end, the truth probably somewhere in the middle of. But that is a substantial loss of manpower. And the question that really begs to be asked is, what is Vladimir Putin’s endgame here? Because let’s presume that if he continues to push his forces into Ukraine, at some point you would think the raw numbers would lead to his being able to seize Kiev and these other cities that he’s attempting to take control of.

But what does control look like? Ukraine is the size of Texas. So is Putin going to commit 150,000 troops long range in order to basically be policing all of Ukraine to ensure that whatever government he tries to prop up is going to be in power there? And then what sort of long-term consequences is he willing to accept in terms of the cost of that occupation? And also, Buck, the cost of that occupation plus the loss of men and materials that will continue.

Because I think you’re gonna continue to see Ukrainian citizens firing away potshots here and there, taking out troops, throwing Molotov cocktails, ending lives and ending the use of so many different apparatus of war there. So how does this end for Putin in any way other than a loss?

‘Cause that’s the way I’m already looking ahead for is there are metaphors this thing could end. Russia could decide, “Hey, it’s not worth it. We’re gonna get some negotiated settlement, claim that we got what we wanted, and pull out.” But it doesn’t seem to me, Buck, like this has any possibility of ending in a positive direction for Vladimir Putin. The question is just what’s the time frame.

BUCK: So here’s what I think, and this goes into the analytic prediction category, right? Here’s what I think Putin is trying to get out of this. And I’m the first to admit that there’s a lot of conflicting reporting about everything right now. The Russian morale for the troops is super low. The Russians have barely begun to fight; the Ukrainians feel like they can keep this going for months.

The Ukrainians feel like once the artillery comes in and close air support from the Russians are pounding them, it’s just a matter of days before they have to capitulate. So you’re seeing reporting — and debates about the reporting — on both sides of these major equations. Here’s what I think is happening — or, rather, here’s what I think Putin wants to happen. I’d say that. This is his endgame as I see it — and I could be wrong, and we’ll see.

But he’s going to encircle Kiev. That’s obviously underway right now. He’s gonna encircle Kiev, be pounding the capital city, and they’re going to be turning up the pressure, and there will be mounting casualties and also destruction of critical infrastructure and military and security units in the rest of Ukraine going on. So they’ll be strengthening the Russian bargaining position. The eastern part of Ukraine, for all intents and purposes, in Putin’s mind — the Donbas region — is Russia.

That is now the Russian Federation. Russian passports have been give an out. No way… That’s why he said from the very beginning he’s recognizing them as independent states or recognizing their independence. They’re part of Russia. In any negotiation, I think that will be immovable for Vladimir Putin. The part of Ukraine from essentially the capital east of the Dnieper River.

That, I think, is going to become a “Russian peacekeeping,” quote, unquote peacekeeping or protectorate zone. They’ll keep military there they’ll say in order to protect Russian speaking minorities and for stabilization during the ceasefires and negotiations that will be happening around the capital city. I think they want the government under Zelensky to effectively capitulate to full Russian control of the Donbas.

A Russian buffer state, if you will, or buffer zone in the east of the Dnieper River area in Ukraine and then they give, essentially, the concession will be the end of open hostilities and warfare with the end of the invasion effectively, and they’ll give the western part of Ukraine to some sort of power sharing or they’ll break that down and say, “Well, that can effectively be what the old Ukraine was at some level with this new government going on,” right?

That’s how I see it happening ’cause I don’t believe that Putin thinks that he can expand all across the entire country and maintain that. But what he does have here, there’s Ukraine-speaking Ukrainians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians, in his mind, and if he can separate those out geographically and in terms of a political notion as well, it’s effectively a divide-and-conquer strategy and state in play. That’s what I think he’s gonna do instead of going to the whole country if he can get there militarily, which is the huge unanswered question that I can’t… I don’t know how that goes.

CLAY: I think the other question that a lot of people are debating — we should talk about this when we come back in the next segment — is how does Zelensky play into this? Because you know the way that people respond to issues like these, Buck, is they become attached to stories and they become attached to the individual story. And Zelensky has become a hero of much of the Western world and, frankly, of much of the world in general.

How does Putin finesse that? Because it doesn’t seem like Zelensky is going to walk away from Ukraine even if his life remains — as it is so far — in incredible danger, and what is Russia going to do with him? How do they reconcile the immense amount of political legitimacy that Zelensky is going to retain no matter what? To me, that’s one of the big topics of discussion here because it goes to what Russia will be able to do even if they, quote-unquote, “win” this war in some way, which I think certainly there’s a big debate about whether that’s going to happen or not.

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